Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 32

Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen Zheng Prediction

Marie Bouzkova

Rank: #27
53%
VS

Qinwen Zheng

Rank: #54
47%
Expected Total Games: 21.5
Predicted Winner: Marie Bouzkova

Why the Model Favors Marie Bouzkova

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +6.2 Qinwen Zheng
Surface fit +5.6 Marie Bouzkova
Overall record & opposition quality +5.0 Marie Bouzkova
Fatigue & recent workload +3.7 Marie Bouzkova
Recent record by level +1.9 Qinwen Zheng

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Marie Bouzkova. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Marie Bouzkova

  • Current #27 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-09-29

Qinwen Zheng

  • Current #54 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #138 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #30 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Marie Bouzkova

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 1821.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1811.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 84.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 41.5
Clay: 31.3
Grass: 36.7
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 91.5

Qinwen Zheng

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 1854.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1810.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 306.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.2
Clay: 41.9
Grass: 17.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Marie Bouzkova
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kimberly Birrell (2-0) hard Beijing 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Iga Swiatek (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Harriet Dart (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Elsa Jacquemot (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Coco Gauff (0-2) hard Cincinnati 93 min

Qinwen Zheng
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Anna Kalinskaya (1-1) hard Beijing 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Han Shi (2-1) hard Beijing 164 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Elena Rybakina (1-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Iga Swiatek (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Madison Keys (2-1) hard Us Open 120 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marie Bouzkova
vs
0
Qinwen Zheng
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bouzkova is a slight favourite in the Beijing Quarterfinals, with the forecast giving her 53% to Zheng’s 47%. The expected total is 21.5 games, pointing to a competitive match.

Match Analysis

Bouzkova’s stronger return profile gives her a way to challenge Zheng’s serve, and the forecast also gives her a surface-fit advantage. Zheng’s serving remains an important counter: the serve-and-return matchup is the largest factor in her favour. Bouzkova is ranked 27th, compared with Zheng at 54th, which supports the lean toward Bouzkova on overall record and opposition quality. Workload also tilts her way. She has spent 84 minutes on court in Beijing, while Zheng has played 306 minutes, including a 142-minute match against Anna Kalinskaya.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.5 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marie Bouzkova - Qinwen Zheng) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Qinwen Zheng wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Zheng is projected to hit 5.4 aces, against 2.1 for Bouzkova, although their serve profiles are closely matched. The forecast has Bouzkova making 3.8 double faults and Zheng 4.1, so Zheng’s higher expected ace count comes with a slightly higher double-fault total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.4 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Marie Bouzkova 2.0 + Qinwen Zheng 5.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Marie Bouzkova 3.8 + Qinwen Zheng 4.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Marie Bouzkova

Expected 2.0 aces

Qinwen Zheng

Expected 5.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Marie Bouzkova

Expected 3.8 double faults

Qinwen Zheng

Expected 4.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

27.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marie Bouzkova's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zheng’s serving is the strongest threat to the forecast, particularly if it limits Bouzkova’s chances to use her stronger return. Bouzkova’s lighter workload gives her a useful counter in a match expected to be close.

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