Osaka Osaka, JPN Hard Wta 250 Round of 32

Tereza Valentova vs Shuai Zhang Prediction

Tereza Valentova

Rank: #88
73%
VS

Shuai Zhang

Rank: #85
27%
Expected Total Games: 22.3
Predicted Winner: Tereza Valentova

Why the Model Favors Tereza Valentova

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +7.2 Tereza Valentova
Age +5.6 Tereza Valentova
Serve & return game +3.8 Tereza Valentova
Recent record by level +2.3 Tereza Valentova
Surface fit +2.0 Tereza Valentova

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for Tereza Valentova. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tereza Valentova

  • Current #88 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #63 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #51 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #54 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #57 2025-10-20

Shuai Zhang

  • Current #85 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #55 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #65 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #75 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #122 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Tereza Valentova

Form Index: 30.1
ELO Rating: 1628.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.3
Clay: 16.6
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 91.4

Shuai Zhang

Form Index: 19.8
ELO Rating: 1553.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1617.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.3
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 14.5
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Tereza Valentova
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Shuai Zhang
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ashlyn Krueger (0-2) hard Wuhan 68 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Leylah Fernandez (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Maria Timofeeva (0-2) hard Monterrey 66 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ann Li (0-2) hard Cincinnati 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Kayla Day (2-1) hard Cincinnati 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tereza Valentova
vs
0
Shuai Zhang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valentova is favoured at 73% to Zhang’s 27%, with the match projected to last 22.3 games. In this Osaka Round of 32 match, their close rankings contrast with Valentova’s stronger recent form and return game.

Match Analysis

Valentova beat Mary Stoiana in Cincinnati, though she then lost to Elina Svitolina, and she also fell to Taylor Townsend in Montreal. Zhang’s three most recent listed matches ended in straight-set defeats, against Ashlyn Krueger, Leylah Fernandez and Maria Timofeeva. That recent-results contrast supports Valentova’s advantage. Their rankings are close, with Valentova at 88 and Zhang at 85, but Valentova has the stronger return and hard-court profile. The two serve indicators are nearly identical, so the difference may come after the serve, where Valentova is better placed to pressure Zhang’s service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.3 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tereza Valentova - Shuai Zhang) +1.4 Most likely spread: +1 (Tereza Valentova wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Valentova is projected for 2.9 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Zhang is projected for 1.5 aces and 3.0 double faults. Their serve indicators are almost even, but the forecast expects more aces from Valentova and a similar, relatively high double-fault count from both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.4 Most likely: 3 aces Per player: Tereza Valentova 2.9 + Shuai Zhang 1.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Tereza Valentova 3.7 + Shuai Zhang 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tereza Valentova

Expected 2.9 aces

Shuai Zhang

Expected 1.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tereza Valentova

Expected 3.7 double faults

Shuai Zhang

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

22.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tereza Valentova's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (48.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zhang’s serve is almost level with Valentova’s, and a more productive serving day could blunt the return advantage that favours Valentova.

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