Montreal 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Aug 2 to Aug 14
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Aug 2 | Aug 3 | Aug 4 | Aug 5 | Aug 6 | Aug 7 | Aug 8 | Aug 9 | Aug 10 | Aug 11 | Aug 12 | Aug 13 | Aug 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 34.1% | 30.2% | 63.5% | 100.0% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 52.5% | 52.7% | 48.9% | 53.7% | 50.0% | 52.7% | 45.1% | out | - | - | - | - | - |
| Elena Rybakina | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 16.5% | 25.2% | 18.3% | 21.9% | 36.5% | out |
| Coco Gauff | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 20.3% | 22.0% | 19.1% | 32.2% | out | - |
| Elina Svitolina | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 17.9% | 15.8% | out | - |
| Jessica Pegula | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | out | - | - | - | - | - |
| Naomi Osaka | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | out | - | - |
How the race unfolded
Iga Swiatek won Montreal 2026. On Aug 2, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Aryna Sabalenka at 52.5%. Iga Swiatek took the front on Aug 13 and kept it to the end, after the lead had changed hands 5 times. The sharpest fall: Aryna Sabalenka, from 45.1% to out of the tournament on Aug 9.
Last open forecast (Aug 13)
- Iga Swiatek (7) 63.5%
- Elena Rybakina (2) 36.5%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The WTA title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/wta_tennis_tournament_simulations/montreal-2026">WTA title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)