Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 30, 2026
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens
Why the Model Favors Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEAnadolu Efes Istanbul
AWAYPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens is favored to win, with a 58% probability, despite Anadolu Efes Istanbul having home court. Efes will need its scoring and shooting to counter Panathinaikos’ stronger team rating.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 173 points, pointing to a game with a solid scoring pace. Panathinaikos is expected to win by four, a close margin that leaves room for Efes to make its home advantage count.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 173.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Anadolu Efes Istanbul − Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens) · expected -3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, with Efes up 12 points and Panathinaikos up six.
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas Istanbul | 89 | 80 | +9 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 88 | 118 | -30 |
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 85 | 79 | +6 | |
| Armani Olimpia Milan | 80 | 75 | +5 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest factor in Efes’ favor, but Panathinaikos has the advantage in team strength, scoring and shooting, and ballhandling. That profile helps explain why the visitors are favored despite playing away. Efes is 3-5 and most recently lost 88-118 to Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv, while Panathinaikos is 7-1 after winning two of its previous three games.
Dario Saric is projected for 11.8 points and 4.5 rebounds, giving Efes a reliable scoring option inside and out. Cameron Payne is projected for 11.6 points and 2.1 made threes, making his perimeter scoring another route for Efes to challenge the forecast. For Panathinaikos, Guerschon Yabusele is projected for 10.1 points and 4.5 rebounds, offering a scoring and rebounding presence at forward.
Final Prediction
If Payne and Efes’ other guards turn their outside shooting into a clear advantage, the home side could overcome Panathinaikos’ stronger rating and tilt this close projection.
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