Armani Olimpia Milan vs Valencia Basket Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 5, 2026
Armani Olimpia Milan
Valencia Basket
Why the Model Favors Valencia Basket
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Valencia Basket. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEArmani Olimpia Milan
AWAYValencia Basket
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Valencia Basket is favored to win, with a 53% probability, though Armani Olimpia Milan’s home court keeps the call close. The visitors’ stronger season record and rating trend support the narrow preference.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 182 points, suggesting a high-scoring game. Valencia is expected to win by 2 points, so the numbers point to a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 182.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Armani Olimpia Milan − Valencia Basket) · expected -2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Milan’s ELO is falling, down 48 points over its last five games, while Valencia’s is rising, up 5.
Armani Olimpia Milan
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Valencia Basket
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Armani Olimpia Milan
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 81 | 89 | -8 | |
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 75 | 80 | -5 | |
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 78 | 84 | -6 |
Valencia Basket
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Basketball | 104 | 93 | +11 | |
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 86 | 78 | +8 | |
| FC Barcelona | 94 | 98 | -4 |
Game Analysis
Home court is Milan’s strongest counterweight, but Valencia’s advantage in team ratings is larger. The model also favors Valencia in scoring and shooting, as well as ballhandling, steals and fouls, pointing to an edge in creating and protecting possessions.
Milan has lost each of its three listed recent games, while Valencia has won two of its last three. T.J. Shorts is projected for 17 points and 5 assists, making him a central scorer and creator for Valencia. Armoni Brooks is projected for 14 points and 3 three-pointers. For Milan, Moses Wright is projected for 13 points and 6 rebounds, while Devon Hall is projected for 12 points and 4 assists.
Final Prediction
If Milan can limit Shorts’ scoring and playmaking, its home-court advantage could be enough to turn a narrow projected deficit into a win.
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