Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 5, 2026
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
Why the Model Favors Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 84% for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
AWAYKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul is favored to beat Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz, with an 84% win probability. The stronger rating profile and home-court advantage support the hosts, despite their recent losses.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projection is 172 combined points, pointing to a game with a solid scoring total. Fenerbahce is projected to win by 11, a margin that suggests a clear home advantage rather than a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 171.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul − Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz) · expected +11.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Over the last five games, Fenerbahce’s ELO has fallen 5 points while Baskonia’s has dropped 51, leaving their season ratings at +51 and -147 respectively.
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 64 | 61 | +3 | |
| Valencia Basket | 78 | 86 | -8 | |
| Real Madrid | 76 | 95 | -19 |
Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 79 | 85 | -6 | |
| Real Madrid | 86 | 104 | -18 | |
| LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 79 | 94 | -15 |
Game Analysis
Team strength is the strongest support for Fenerbahce, with home court close behind. The hosts also have projected advantages in scoring and shooting, plus a smaller edge on the boards. Baskonia’s slight advantage in ballhandling, steals and fouls offers one counter, but is outweighed by those broader differences.
Shavon Shields is projected for 13.4 points and a 14.3 PIR, while Talen Horton-Tucker is projected for 13.3 points and 3.2 assists. For Baskonia, Kenneth Faried is projected for a 11.0 PIR and 5.3 rebounds, and Kobi Simmons for 9.9 points and 2.7 assists. Fenerbahce is 6-3 despite two recent defeats. Baskonia is 1-8 and has lost its last three listed games.
Final Prediction
Baskonia’s best route to changing the outlook is to make its small ballhandling advantage count, disrupting Fenerbahce’s offense and creating extra chances. If it cannot do that, the hosts’ rating and home-court advantages point toward control of the game.
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