Olympiacos Piraeus vs Armani Olimpia Milan Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 30, 2026
Olympiacos Piraeus
Armani Olimpia Milan
Why the Model Favors Olympiacos Piraeus
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 86% for Olympiacos Piraeus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEOlympiacos Piraeus
AWAYArmani Olimpia Milan
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Olympiacos Piraeus is favored to beat Armani Olimpia Milan, with an 86% win probability. Its stronger rating profile and home court underpin a clear advantage, while Milan enters with a 1-7 record.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projection is 187 combined points, suggesting a high-scoring game. Olympiacos is expected to win by 13, a margin that points to a comfortable home victory rather than a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 187.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Olympiacos Piraeus − Armani Olimpia Milan) · expected +12.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Over the last five games, Olympiacos’ ELO is rising by 45 points, while Milan’s is falling by 70.
Olympiacos Piraeus
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Armani Olimpia Milan
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Olympiacos Piraeus
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 61 | 64 | -3 | |
| Besiktas Istanbul | 81 | 73 | +8 |
Armani Olimpia Milan
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 81 | 89 | -8 | |
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 75 | 80 | -5 |
Game Analysis
Team strength and home court are the main separators in the forecast. Olympiacos has won two of its last three, including a 105-100 result against Barcelona, while Milan has lost its last three. The scoring and shooting factor also favors the hosts, with rebounding and paint presence a smaller advantage.
Vezenkov is projected for 17.4 points, the highest scoring figure among the listed Olympiacos starters. Fournier adds a perimeter threat, projected for 13.7 points and 2.2 made threes. For Milan, Wright is projected for 11 points and 5.4 rebounds, giving the visitors a potential inside counter, while Hall is projected for 3.7 assists to help organize the offense.
Final Prediction
Milan’s best route to changing the outlook is for Wright to limit Olympiacos’ advantage on the glass and around the rim. If he cannot, the hosts have the scoring and shooting edge to build the projected separation.
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