Olympiacos Piraeus vs Dubai Basketball Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 12, 2026
Olympiacos Piraeus
Dubai Basketball
Why the Model Favors Olympiacos Piraeus
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Olympiacos Piraeus. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEOlympiacos Piraeus
AWAYDubai Basketball
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Olympiacos Piraeus is favoured to beat Dubai Basketball, with a 68% win probability. Sasha Vezenkov’s projected scoring gives the hosts a clear focal point.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 169 points, with Olympiacos favoured by about five. That points to a competitive game with a moderate scoring pace, rather than a likely blowout.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 169.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Olympiacos Piraeus − Dubai Basketball) · expected +5.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Olympiacos’ rating has fallen by 20 points over its last five games, while Dubai’s has risen by 55, giving the visitors the stronger recent momentum.
Olympiacos Piraeus
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Dubai Basketball
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Olympiacos Piraeus
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 61 | 64 | -3 | |
| Besiktas Istanbul | 81 | 73 | +8 | |
| Armani Olimpia Milan | 84 | 78 | +6 | |
| Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 57 | 62 | -5 |
Dubai Basketball
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern Munich | 107 | 91 | +16 | |
| Paris Basketball | 93 | 99 | -6 | |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 97 | 83 | +14 | |
| Virtus Bologna | 93 | 75 | +18 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the largest influence in Olympiacos’ favour, with its scoring and shooting also providing a smaller boost. The teams share a 7-3 record, but Dubai arrives after wins over Virtus Bologna and Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv, while Olympiacos has alternated wins and a loss in its three listed results.
Vezenkov is projected for 19 points and 6 rebounds, making his scoring a major part of the home side’s outlook. For Dubai, Dwayne Bacon is projected for 15 points, while Mfiondu Kabengele’s 13 points and 6 rebounds offer a second source of production. Ballhandling, steals and fouls slightly favour Dubai, so the visitors have a route to disrupt Olympiacos’ possession flow.
Final Prediction
If Dubai can turn that ballhandling advantage into extra scoring chances, it could offset Olympiacos’ home-court boost and make the projected margin harder to reach.
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