Paris Basketball vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 11, 2026
Paris Basketball
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Why the Model Favors Paris Basketball
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Paris Basketball. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEParis Basketball
AWAYFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Paris Basketball is favored at home, with a 59% chance to beat Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul. Nadir Hifi is projected to lead Paris' scoring, while Shavon Shields is Fenerbahce's top projected scorer.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projection is 169 combined points, with Paris favored by one. That points to a high-scoring game with little separation in the forecast.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 168.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Paris Basketball − Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul) · expected +1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Paris' rating is rising, up 60 points over its last five games, while Fenerbahce's is falling, down 10.
Paris Basketball
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Paris Basketball
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia Basket | 93 | 104 | -11 | |
| Dubai Basketball | 99 | 93 | +6 | |
| Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv | 99 | 94 | +5 | |
| Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 95 | 90 | +5 |
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 64 | 61 | +3 | |
| Valencia Basket | 78 | 86 | -8 | |
| Real Madrid | 76 | 95 | -19 | |
| Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz | 84 | 65 | +19 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest reason Paris gets the nod, but Fenerbahce's stronger team-strength rating and advantage in rebounding and paint presence work against the hosts. Paris has a small scoring and shooting advantage, so its challenge is to turn its home setting and perimeter scoring into enough offense to offset Fenerbahce's work on the glass and inside.
Paris has won its last three listed games, while Fenerbahce has lost two of its last three. Hifi is projected for 21 points and four assists, making his scoring and creation central to Paris' attack. Talen Horton-Tucker is projected for 14 points and three assists for Fenerbahce, giving the visitors a scoring and playmaking counter.
Final Prediction
If Fenerbahce's rebounding and paint advantage controls enough possessions, it could erase Paris' home-court lift and swing this narrow forecast the other way.
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