Valencia Basket vs FC Bayern Munich Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · November 12, 2026
Valencia Basket
FC Bayern Munich
Why the Model Favors Valencia Basket
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 77% for Valencia Basket. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEValencia Basket
AWAYFC Bayern Munich
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Valencia Basket is favoured to beat FC Bayern Munich, with a 78% win probability. A 7-3 record and stronger recent rating momentum support the home side’s position.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 179 points, pointing to a high-scoring game. Valencia is forecast to win by 10, a margin that suggests a clear home advantage rather than a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 178.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Valencia Basket − FC Bayern Munich) · expected +10.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Valencia’s rating is rising, up 45 points over its last five games, while Bayern’s is falling, down 39.
Valencia Basket
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
FC Bayern Munich
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Valencia Basket
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Basketball | 104 | 93 | +11 | |
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 86 | 78 | +8 | |
| FC Barcelona | 94 | 98 | -4 | |
| Armani Olimpia Milan | 84 | 73 | +11 |
FC Bayern Munich
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Basketball | 91 | 107 | -16 | |
| FC Barcelona | 84 | 88 | -4 | |
| Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 73 | 103 | -30 | |
| LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 99 | 95 | +4 |
Game Analysis
Home court and the gap in team strength are the main reasons Valencia is favoured. The projected advantage in ballhandling, steals and fouls, along with rebounding and presence in the paint, also points toward Valencia controlling more of the game’s possessions and interior play.
Tj Shorts is projected for 17 points and 6 assists, making his playmaking central to Valencia’s attack. Kameron Taylor adds a projected 13 points. Bayern’s Austin Wiley is projected for 9 points and 6 rebounds, while Andreas Obst’s projected 10 points and 2 made threes offer a perimeter counter. Bayern’s scoring and shooting profile is the one area that leans its way, though only slightly.
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