Valencia Basket vs Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 27, 2026
Valencia Basket
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Why the Model Favors Valencia Basket
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Valencia Basket. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEValencia Basket
AWAYFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Valencia Basket is favored, with a 59% chance of winning at home. Tj Shorts could be central to that outlook as a projected scoring and playmaking source.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 170 points, suggesting a game with plenty of scoring. Valencia is expected to win by three, a narrow margin that leaves little room for error.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 169.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Valencia Basket − Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul) · expected +2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul’s rating is rising, up 33 points over the last five games, while Valencia Basket’s is falling, down 10.
Valencia Basket
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Valencia Basket
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Basketball | 104 | 93 | +11 |
Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 64 | 61 | +3 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the clearest separator in the projection, while Fenerbahce’s stronger team ratings pull the other way. Valencia also gets support from its ballhandling, steals and fouls profile, with a smaller boost from scoring and shooting. Fenerbahce’s advantage in rebounding and paint presence is a counterweight.
The guard matchup could help decide whether Valencia turns that home advantage into control of the game. Shorts is projected for 15.5 points and 5.3 assists, while Talen Horton-Tucker is projected for 13.6 points and 3.3 assists for Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce has won its three listed recent games, while Valencia has split its last three, including a 104-93 win over Paris.
Final Prediction
If Fenerbahce can limit Shorts’ playmaking and turn its rebounding advantage into extra possessions, it has a clear route to overturn the home-side projection. Valencia will need its ballhandling advantage to hold up against Fenerbahce’s recent momentum.
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