Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 28, 2026
Virtus Bologna
Zalgiris Kaunas
Why the Model Favors Virtus Bologna
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Virtus Bologna. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEVirtus Bologna
AWAYZalgiris Kaunas
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Virtus Bologna is favored to beat Zalgiris Kaunas, with a 63% win probability. The forecast gives the home side the advantage, though it does not point to a runaway result.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The projected total is 173 points, suggesting a game with plenty of scoring. Virtus is expected to win by 6 points, a margin that leaves room for a close finish.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 172.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Virtus Bologna − Zalgiris Kaunas) · expected +6.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Virtus’ rating is rising, up 33 points over its last five games, while Zalgiris’ is falling, down 13.
Virtus Bologna
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Zalgiris Kaunas
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Virtus Bologna
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 81 | 90 | -9 |
Zalgiris Kaunas
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 105 | 85 | +20 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the clearest separator, with the rating advantage and Virtus’ rebounding and paint presence adding support. That points to Bologna having chances to win the possession battle and pressure Zalgiris near the basket. Zalgiris has smaller model advantages in shooting and ballhandling, giving it routes to keep pace.
Marcus Carr is projected for 13.8 points and 5.3 assists, offering Virtus both scoring and playmaking from the lead guard spot. Zalgiris’ Jonas Valanciunas is projected for 11.3 points and 7 rebounds, while Carsen Edwards’ 15.5-point projection makes his scoring an important counter. Zalgiris will need those guards to make its shooting and ballhandling advantages count, especially if Virtus controls the glass.
Final Prediction
Zalgiris could change the shape of the game if Valanciunas controls the rebounds and Edwards’ perimeter scoring makes Virtus defend farther from the basket.
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