Zalgiris Kaunas vs Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 30, 2026

Zalgiris Kaunas

Home
63.6%
VS

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

Away
36.4%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors Zalgiris Kaunas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.3 Zalgiris Kaunas
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.4 Zalgiris Kaunas
Rebounding & paint presence +2.4 Zalgiris Kaunas
Ballhandling, steals & fouls +2.3 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
Scoring & shooting +1.2 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Zalgiris Kaunas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMEZalgiris Kaunas

PTS13.9 REB2.1 AST3.1 3PM2.4 PIR11.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.2 REB2.1 AST4.5 3PM0.8 PIR9.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS10.3 REB5.2 AST1.6 3PM0.5 PIR12.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.0 REB4.1 AST0.8 3PM0.4 PIR7.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS11.8 REB7.4 AST2.0 3PM0.1 PIR16.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

PTS14.6 REB3.0 AST5.2 3PM1.2 PIR13.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS5.9 REB2.8 AST4.1 3PM1.0 PIR7.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.0 REB2.8 AST1.5 3PM1.3 PIR7.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS6.5 REB4.0 AST1.0 3PM0.1 PIR7.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS4.0 REB2.6 AST0.7 3PM0.1 PIR5.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Carsen Edwards Guard
PTS
13.9
PIR
11.7
REB
2.1
VS
Carlik Jones Guard
PTS
14.6
PIR
13.8
REB
3.0
2
Saben Lee Guard
PTS
8.2
PIR
9.2
REB
2.1
VS
Alessandro Pajola Guard
PTS
5.9
PIR
7.7
REB
2.8
3
Azuolas Tubelis Forward
PTS
10.3
PIR
12.2
REB
5.2
VS
Ethan Thompson Forward
PTS
8.0
PIR
7.6
REB
2.8
4
Arnas Butkevicius Forward
PTS
6.0
PIR
7.1
REB
4.1
VS
Nikola Tanaskovic Center
PTS
6.5
PIR
7.9
REB
4.0
5
Jonas Valanciunas Center
PTS
11.8
PIR
16.4
REB
7.4
VS
Joffrey Lauvergne Center
PTS
4.0
PIR
5.9
REB
2.6
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

Zalgiris Kaunas is favored at home, with a 64% chance of winning. The teams have identical 4-4 records, but Zalgiris has the stronger recent results.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The expected total is 162 points, with Zalgiris projected to win by three. That points to a close game, with the combined score in the low 160s.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 161.8

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (Zalgiris Kaunas − Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade) · expected +3.0

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

Over the last five games, Zalgiris’ rating has been nearly flat, down two points, while Partizan’s has fallen sharply by 55.

Zalgiris Kaunas

+38 +32 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

-29 -21 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Zalgiris Kaunas

2-0 in last 2
WW
OpponentPFPADiff
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne 105 85 +20
Virtus Bologna 91 74 +17

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

1-1 in last 2
WL
OpponentPFPADiff
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade 85 82 +3
LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne 75 82 -7

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest reason to lean toward Zalgiris, with stronger team ratings and an advantage in rebounding and paint presence adding support. Jonas Valanciunas is projected for 11.8 points and 7.4 rebounds, giving the hosts a focal point inside, while Carsen Edwards is projected for 13.9 points and 2.4 made threes. Zalgiris has also won its last two games, including a 91-74 result over Virtus Bologna.

Partizan’s counter is its advantage in ballhandling, steals and fouls, along with a slight edge in scoring and shooting. Carlik Jones is projected for 14.6 points and 5.2 assists, and Alessandro Pajola’s 4.1 projected assists could help Partizan create chances through its guards. Those strengths give the visitors ways to challenge Zalgiris’ home-court and interior advantages.

Final Prediction

If Partizan’s guards turn their ballhandling advantage into clean possessions and limit Zalgiris’ work on the glass, the narrow projected margin could disappear.

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