Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Freiburg

Home Team
49%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
27%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 27.8
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 26 4 1 113 32 81 82
2 Dortmund 31 20 7 4 65 31 34 67
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 62 38 24 62
4 Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 63 43 20 57
5 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 61 45 16 57
6 Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 56 58 -2 43
8 Freiburg 31 12 7 12 44 52 -8 43
9 Augsburg 31 10 7 14 39 55 -16 37
10 Mainz 31 8 10 13 39 49 -10 34
11 M'gladbach 31 7 11 13 36 50 -14 32
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 36 54 -18 32
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 35 55 -20 32
14 FC Koln 31 7 10 14 45 53 -8 31
15 Hamburg 31 7 10 14 34 50 -16 31
16 St Pauli 31 6 8 17 26 53 -27 26
17 Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 41 66 -25 25
18 Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 35 66 -31 22

Recent Trends

Freiburg L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)

Wolfsburg D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 6)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 1

Wolfsburg

xG (avg) 0.91
xGA (avg) 2.94
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Freiburg are slight favourites at home, with a 49.0% chance of taking all three points compared to Wolfsburg’s 27.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a Freiburg win combined with an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% for three or more goals. In the table, Freiburg sit 8th on 43 points, while Wolfsburg are 17th on 25 points and deep in relegation trouble.

Match Analysis

Freiburg come into this one with two wins from their last three: a tight 1-0 success at Mainz, a 2-1 home win over Heidenheim, and a heavy 0-4 defeat away to Dortmund. That mix underlines their season: competitive against sides around them or below, but vulnerable against the very top. Their underlying numbers over the last five matches are steady – 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average, with xG for at 1.882 and xG against at 1.69 – suggesting a team broadly creating as much as they allow, and capable of edging tight games. Wolfsburg’s recent run has been just as patchy, but from a far more precarious position. A 2-1 win at Union Berlin and a goalless draw with M’gladbach are positives, yet they also lost 1-2 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. The advanced metrics paint a worrying picture: 1.6 goals scored but 2.8 conceded on average in the last five, with only 0.912 xG for and a huge 2.938 xG against. That gap between goals scored and chances created hints at overperformance in attack and serious defensive frailty – a bad combination away to a mid‑table side with something to play for.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 56.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Freiburg’s last three matches finished over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Dortmund, 2-1 vs Heidenheim), with only the 1-0 at Mainz going under 2.5. Wolfsburg have had two of their last three over 2.5 as well (2-1 at Union, 2-1 loss to Frankfurt) and one under 2.5 (0-0 vs M’gladbach). With Freiburg averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded and Wolfsburg allowing 2.8 per game, plus xG numbers pointing to chances at both ends, three or more goals look more likely than not.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.73, pointing to a match around the 9–10 corners mark. Freiburg’s last three games produced corner counts of 0-5, 5-4 and 4-6, showing they can be both contained and dominant depending on the opponent. Wolfsburg’s recent figures (8-5, 4-11, 7-7) suggest they’re regularly involved in matches with plenty of deliveries into the box. For this corners prediction, the expectation is that Freiburg’s more balanced approach and Wolfsburg’s need to chase points should combine for a moderate but not extreme number of corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 27.77 expected shots in total, indicating a relatively busy game in and around both penalty areas. Freiburg’s last three matches saw shot totals of 7-17, 17-13 and 8-10, so their games have been hovering around that range already. Wolfsburg’s have been similarly active, with 12-10, 5-25 and 22-10, including one match where they were heavily outshot and another where they fired away themselves. Given Freiburg’s xG of 1.882 and Wolfsburg’s high xG conceded (2.938), a shot count in the high 20s fits the expected shots profile.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Freiburg wins by X goals. Negative = Wolfsburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Freiburg vs Wolfsburg with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Freiburg -0.43, meaning the expected spread has the home side winning by just under half a goal on average. Recent goal differences support Freiburg’s slight edge: across their last three they are exactly even (0-4, 2-1, 1-0 = -1 overall but two wins), while Wolfsburg have a neutral recent goal difference (0-0, 2-1, 1-2) but from weaker underlying numbers. With a 49.0% home win probability and Wolfsburg conceding 2.8 goals per game over the last five, a narrow Freiburg advantage in the expected spread is logical.

Final Prediction

Freiburg’s more stable form, stronger underlying metrics and home advantage give them the edge over a Wolfsburg side that is conceding too many chances and fighting to stay up. If Wolfsburg’s defence again allows close to three xG, Freiburg’s attack should find enough openings to justify the model’s home win and over 2.5 lean. The key factor to watch will be whether Wolfsburg can tighten up without losing their attacking threat, or if Freiburg’s efficiency in both boxes decides the contest.

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