Heidenheim
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #4 of 18 54.0 expected pts · currently 14 pts after 7 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 18 in Bundesliga 26 pts · 6W-8D-20L · GD -31
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Heidenheim?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Heidenheim's results were 2.6% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Heidenheim | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 56.0% | 55.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 63.2% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 59.1% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1627 | 1636 | 1627 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #13 | 1467 | 1467 | 1419 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #15 | 1533 | 1552 | 1408 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #10 | 1480 | 1523 | 1507 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1537 | 1670 | 1650 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1498 | 1571 | 1512 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1569 | 1596 | 1499 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1570 | 1598 | 1572 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1475 | 1586 | 1552 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1480 | 1532 | 1470 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Heidenheim 46.6% · draw 28.2% | D ✗ |
| Sep 20, 2026 | at Bielefeld | L Heidenheim 31.9% · draw 30.4% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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