Heidenheim
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #17 of 18 in Bundesliga 26 pts · 6W–8D–20L · GD -31
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Heidenheim?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Heidenheim's results were 8.8% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Heidenheim | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 53.6% | 55.6% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 63.9% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 59.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #13 | 1467 | 1467 | 1419 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #15 | 1533 | 1552 | 1408 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #10 | 1480 | 1523 | 1507 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1537 | 1670 | 1650 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1498 | 1571 | 1512 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1569 | 1596 | 1499 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1570 | 1598 | 1572 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1475 | 1586 | 1552 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1480 | 1532 | 1470 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | at FC Köln | L Heidenheim 14.3% · draw 15.8% | W ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Bayern Munich | L Heidenheim 4.1% · draw 6.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs St Pauli | L Heidenheim 36.6% · draw 25.3% | W ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Freiburg | L Heidenheim 20.5% · draw 20.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Union Berlin | L Heidenheim 36.4% · draw 25.1% | W ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | L Heidenheim 21.4% · draw 21.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Leverkusen | L Heidenheim 19.9% · draw 18.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | L Heidenheim 20.1% · draw 20.2% | L ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Hoffenheim | L Heidenheim 22.6% · draw 20.3% | L ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Werder Bremen | L Heidenheim 19.7% · draw 19.9% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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