Mainz

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1488 · #11 Bundesliga 2W-1D-2L · 7 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 18 48.9 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 5 matches

League title 0.2%
Champions League places 8.5%
Europa League 19.2%
Relegation playoff 0.7%
Relegation 0.5%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Mainz?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Mainz's results were 19.2% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketMainzLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 46.2% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 61.5% 63.2%
Both teams to score 57.7% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #11 1498 1531 1488
2025-26 Bundesliga #8 1471 1558 1483
2024-25 Bundesliga #6 1498 1619 1538
2023-24 Bundesliga #7 1478 1523 1523
2022-23 Bundesliga #11 1529 1594 1468
2021-22 Bundesliga #9 1518 1547 1501
2020-21 Bundesliga #6 1480 1562 1562
2019-20 Bundesliga #11 1478 1478 1466
2018-19 Bundesliga #9 1518 1537 1505
2017-18 Bundesliga #11 1471 1483 1456
2016-17 Bundesliga #16 1482 1537 1401
2015-16 Bundesliga #6 1471 1584 1514
2014-15 Bundesliga #12 1502 1564 1464

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 vs Union Berlin W Mainz 58.5% · draw 20.7% L ✗
May 03, 2026 at St Pauli W Mainz 44.1% · draw 25.0% W ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Bayern Munich L Mainz 21.0% · draw 19.3% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Borussia Mönchengladbach L Mainz 34.4% · draw 27.6% D ✗
Apr 12, 2026 vs Freiburg W Mainz 52.1% · draw 23.3% L ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Hoffenheim L Mainz 19.3% · draw 19.8% W ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs Eintracht Frankfurt W Mainz 46.6% · draw 24.5% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Werder Bremen L Mainz 23.7% · draw 24.0% W ✗
Mar 07, 2026 vs Stuttgart L Mainz 11.1% · draw 11.1% D ✗
Feb 28, 2026 at Leverkusen L Mainz 11.6% · draw 13.3% D ✗

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