Freiburg

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1479 · #9 Bundesliga On script Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 18 46.0 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 1.4%
Champions League 14.1%
Europa League 13.4%
Relegation playoff 4.6%
Relegation 6.3%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Freiburg?

On script 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Freiburg's results were 12.4% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketFreiburgLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 60.7% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 57.1% 63.9%
Both teams to score 57.1% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #9 1467 1528 1479
2024-25 Bundesliga #7 1520 1570 1536
2023-24 Bundesliga #13 1529 1542 1424
2022-23 Bundesliga #5 1534 1597 1544
2021-22 Bundesliga #6 1502 1607 1540
2020-21 Bundesliga #11 1529 1548 1468
2019-20 Bundesliga #9 1522 1567 1484
2018-19 Bundesliga #14 1467 1516 1406
2017-18 Bundesliga #16 1498 1512 1414
2016-17 Bundesliga #8 1482 1535 1489
2014-15 Bundesliga #16 1482 1489 1427

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 at Hamburg L Freiburg 27.1% · draw 23.9% L ✓
May 03, 2026 vs Wolfsburg W Freiburg 48.6% · draw 24.1% D ✗
Apr 26, 2026 at Dortmund L Freiburg 12.0% · draw 13.8% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Heidenheim W Freiburg 59.0% · draw 20.5% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Mainz L Freiburg 24.6% · draw 23.3% W ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Bayern Munich L Freiburg 16.8% · draw 16.4% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 at St Pauli W Freiburg 48.1% · draw 23.7% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 vs Union Berlin W Freiburg 55.1% · draw 22.1% L ✗
Mar 07, 2026 vs Leverkusen L Freiburg 27.5% · draw 23.3% D ✗
Mar 01, 2026 at Eintracht Frankfurt L Freiburg 25.9% · draw 23.4% L ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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