Freiburg

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1578 · #2 Bundesliga 4W-1D-0L · 13 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #5 of 18 58.3 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 5 matches

League title 3.3%
Champions League places 48.2%
Europa League 31.7%
Relegation playoff 0.0%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Freiburg?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Freiburg's results were 9.2% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketFreiburgLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 57.7% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 57.7% 63.2%
Both teams to score 57.7% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #2 1522 1578 1578
2025-26 Bundesliga #9 1467 1528 1479
2024-25 Bundesliga #7 1520 1570 1536
2023-24 Bundesliga #13 1529 1542 1424
2022-23 Bundesliga #5 1534 1597 1544
2021-22 Bundesliga #6 1502 1607 1540
2020-21 Bundesliga #11 1529 1548 1468
2019-20 Bundesliga #9 1522 1567 1484
2018-19 Bundesliga #14 1467 1516 1406
2017-18 Bundesliga #16 1498 1512 1414
2016-17 Bundesliga #8 1482 1535 1489
2014-15 Bundesliga #16 1482 1489 1427

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 at Hamburg L Freiburg 27.1% · draw 23.9% L ✓
May 03, 2026 vs Wolfsburg W Freiburg 48.6% · draw 24.1% D ✗
Apr 26, 2026 at Dortmund L Freiburg 12.0% · draw 13.8% L ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Heidenheim W Freiburg 59.0% · draw 20.5% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Mainz L Freiburg 24.6% · draw 23.3% W ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Bayern Munich L Freiburg 18.0% · draw 17.5% L ✓
Mar 22, 2026 at St Pauli W Freiburg 47.8% · draw 23.7% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 vs Union Berlin W Freiburg 64.8% · draw 18.7% L ✗
Mar 07, 2026 vs Leverkusen L Freiburg 16.3% · draw 15.4% D ✗
Mar 01, 2026 at Eintracht Frankfurt L Freiburg 24.6% · draw 24.1% L ✓

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