Wolfsburg
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 18 in Bundesliga 29 pts · 7W–8D–19L · GD -24
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Wolfsburg?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Wolfsburg's results were 9.7% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Wolfsburg | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.4% | 55.6% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 63.9% |
| Both teams to score | 75.0% | 59.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #17 | 1533 | 1533 | 1359 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #11 | 1471 | 1582 | 1458 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #14 | 1520 | 1546 | 1415 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #8 | 1498 | 1622 | 1503 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #10 | 1518 | 1582 | 1492 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1498 | 1649 | 1573 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #7 | 1518 | 1571 | 1526 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #6 | 1518 | 1599 | 1566 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | #17 | 1466 | 1513 | 1396 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #13 | 1533 | 1533 | 1445 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #11 | 1518 | 1568 | 1460 |
| 2014-15 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1482 | 1696 | 1657 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | vs Bayern Munich | L Wolfsburg 14.3% · draw 14.6% | L ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Freiburg | L Wolfsburg 27.3% · draw 24.1% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W Wolfsburg 51.2% · draw 23.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Union Berlin | L Wolfsburg 23.3% · draw 22.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W Wolfsburg 39.2% · draw 24.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Leverkusen | L Wolfsburg 20.7% · draw 20.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Werder Bremen | W Wolfsburg 56.3% · draw 21.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Hoffenheim | L Wolfsburg 11.7% · draw 13.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Hamburg | W Wolfsburg 40.6% · draw 24.7% | L ✗ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | at Stuttgart | L Wolfsburg 11.4% · draw 13.3% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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