Union Berlin

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1453 · #15 Bundesliga 1W-1D-3L · 4 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #18 of 18 29.6 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 5 matches

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 0.0%
Europa League 0.1%
Relegation playoff 13.1%
Relegation 62.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Union Berlin?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Union Berlin's results were 31.7% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketUnion BerlinLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 32.0% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 56.0% 63.2%
Both teams to score 60.0% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #15 1498 1498 1453
2025-26 Bundesliga #14 1518 1518 1414
2024-25 Bundesliga #10 1502 1551 1466
2023-24 Bundesliga #16 1522 1553 1393
2022-23 Bundesliga #4 1520 1619 1556
2021-22 Bundesliga #3 1498 1612 1612
2020-21 Bundesliga #7 1467 1588 1544
2019-20 Bundesliga #12 1466 1519 1462
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #3 1530 1635 1567
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #6 1529 1598 1522

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 at Mainz L Union Berlin 20.8% · draw 20.7% W ✗
Apr 24, 2026 at RB Leipzig L Union Berlin 12.7% · draw 14.4% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Wolfsburg W Union Berlin 54.4% · draw 22.4% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Heidenheim W Union Berlin 38.4% · draw 25.1% L ✗
Apr 05, 2026 vs St Pauli W Union Berlin 43.9% · draw 23.8% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 at Bayern Munich L Union Berlin 4.0% · draw 6.1% L ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Freiburg L Union Berlin 16.5% · draw 18.7% W ✗
Mar 08, 2026 vs Werder Bremen L Union Berlin 34.0% · draw 25.2% L ✓
Feb 28, 2026 at Borussia Mönchengladbach W Union Berlin 40.1% · draw 23.9% L ✗
Feb 21, 2026 vs Leverkusen L Union Berlin 16.9% · draw 16.6% W ✗

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