Union Berlin

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1414 · #14 Bundesliga Chaos club Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #18 of 18 36.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.1%
Champions League 1.8%
Europa League 2.7%
Relegation playoff 11.7%
Relegation 34.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Union Berlin?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Union Berlin's results were 27.4% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketUnion BerlinLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 32.1% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 60.7% 63.9%
Both teams to score 60.7% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #14 1518 1518 1414
2024-25 Bundesliga #10 1502 1551 1466
2023-24 Bundesliga #16 1522 1553 1393
2022-23 Bundesliga #4 1520 1619 1556
2021-22 Bundesliga #3 1498 1612 1612
2020-21 Bundesliga #7 1467 1588 1544
2019-20 Bundesliga #12 1466 1519 1462
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #3 1530 1635 1567
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #6 1529 1598 1522

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 at Mainz L Union Berlin 20.8% · draw 20.7% W ✗
May 02, 2026 vs FC Köln L Union Berlin 33.6% · draw 25.5% D ✗
Apr 24, 2026 at RB Leipzig L Union Berlin 12.7% · draw 14.4% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Wolfsburg W Union Berlin 54.4% · draw 22.4% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Heidenheim W Union Berlin 38.4% · draw 25.1% L ✗
Apr 05, 2026 vs St Pauli W Union Berlin 39.6% · draw 25.0% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 at Bayern Munich L Union Berlin 5.4% · draw 7.4% L ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Freiburg L Union Berlin 22.8% · draw 22.1% W ✗
Mar 08, 2026 vs Werder Bremen W Union Berlin 43.1% · draw 25.5% L ✗
Feb 28, 2026 at Borussia Mönchengladbach L Union Berlin 33.6% · draw 26.1% L ✓

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