Dortmund

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1520 · #5 Bundesliga On script Updated Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Champions League 2026-27

#12 in the title odds
<1% to win it
93% Top 24 (knockout places)
27% Top 8 (straight to the last 16)
2% Reach the final
13.3 Expected league-phase points
13.4 Projected finish of 36
1845 European club Elo

Top 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.

Full Champions League board: every club's title odds, expected points and route through the league phase →

10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #3 of 18 56.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 8.2%
Champions League places 57.4%
Europa League 18.6%
Relegation playoff 0.3%
Relegation 0.3%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Dortmund?

On script 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Dortmund's results were 20.9% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketDortmundLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 60.7% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 60.7% 63.9%
Both teams to score 53.6% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #5 1520 1520 1520
2025-26 Bundesliga #2 1502 1717 1628
2024-25 Bundesliga #3 1520 1629 1629
2023-24 Bundesliga #4 1518 1655 1595
2022-23 Bundesliga #1 1518 1687 1676
2021-22 Bundesliga #4 1522 1656 1597
2020-21 Bundesliga #2 1522 1674 1674
2019-20 Bundesliga #3 1523 1691 1629
2018-19 Bundesliga #2 1522 1692 1651
2017-18 Bundesliga #6 1534 1633 1536
2016-17 Bundesliga #2 1518 1648 1648
2015-16 Bundesliga #2 1523 1734 1680
2014-15 Bundesliga #5 1467 1550 1550

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 08, 2026 vs Eintracht Frankfurt W Dortmund 61.3% · draw 19.5% W ✓
May 03, 2026 at Borussia Mönchengladbach W Dortmund 56.1% · draw 20.7% L ✗
Apr 26, 2026 vs Freiburg W Dortmund 74.2% · draw 13.8% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Hoffenheim W Dortmund 44.4% · draw 24.4% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 vs Leverkusen W Dortmund 54.6% · draw 21.6% L ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Stuttgart L Dortmund 26.4% · draw 22.6% W ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Hamburg W Dortmund 76.5% · draw 12.7% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Augsburg W Dortmund 73.3% · draw 14.2% W ✓
Mar 07, 2026 at FC Köln W Dortmund 60.2% · draw 19.1% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 vs Bayern Munich L Dortmund 17.8% · draw 17.2% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/dortmund">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/bundesliga"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/dortmund">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets