Dortmund
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#12 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 18 63.9 expected pts · currently 13 pts after 5 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 18 in Bundesliga 73 pts · 22W-7D-5L · GD +36
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Dortmund?
On script 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Dortmund's results were 24.7% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Dortmund | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 57.7% | 55.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 63.2% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 59.1% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1520 | 1583 | 1579 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1502 | 1717 | 1628 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1520 | 1629 | 1629 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #4 | 1518 | 1655 | 1595 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1518 | 1687 | 1676 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #4 | 1522 | 1656 | 1597 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1522 | 1674 | 1674 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1523 | 1691 | 1629 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1522 | 1692 | 1651 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | #6 | 1534 | 1633 | 1536 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1518 | 1648 | 1648 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1523 | 1734 | 1680 |
| 2014-15 | Bundesliga | #5 | 1467 | 1550 | 1550 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 08, 2026 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W Dortmund 61.3% · draw 19.5% | W ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | W Dortmund 56.1% · draw 20.7% | L ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Freiburg | W Dortmund 74.2% · draw 13.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Hoffenheim | W Dortmund 44.4% · draw 24.4% | L ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Leverkusen | W Dortmund 54.6% · draw 21.6% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Stuttgart | L Dortmund 28.7% · draw 23.1% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Hamburg | W Dortmund 77.1% · draw 12.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Augsburg | W Dortmund 88.0% · draw 7.0% | W ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vs Bayern Munich | L Dortmund 4.3% · draw 5.2% | L ✓ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | at RB Leipzig | W Dortmund 45.4% · draw 23.0% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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