Bundesliga 2025-2026: Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leverkusen

Home Team
44%
VS

RB Leipzig

Away Team
32%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 67%
No Goal: 33%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 26 4 1 113 32 81 82
2 Dortmund 31 20 7 4 65 31 34 67
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 62 38 24 62
4 Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 63 43 20 57
5 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 61 45 16 57
6 Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 56 58 -2 43
8 Freiburg 31 12 7 12 44 52 -8 43
9 Augsburg 31 10 7 14 39 55 -16 37
10 Mainz 31 8 10 13 39 49 -10 34
11 M'gladbach 31 7 11 13 36 50 -14 32
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 36 54 -18 32
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 35 55 -20 32
14 FC Koln 31 7 10 14 45 53 -8 31
15 Hamburg 31 7 10 14 34 50 -16 31
16 St Pauli 31 6 8 17 26 53 -27 26
17 Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 41 66 -25 25
18 Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 35 66 -31 22

Recent Trends

Leverkusen W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 6 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)

RB Leipzig W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 3.04
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 1

RB Leipzig

xG (avg) 2.02
xGA (avg) 1.23
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are slight favourites at home, with a 44.0% chance of victory against RB Leipzig’s 32.0%, and a predicted home win edging a tight, top‑six clash between 6th and 3rd in the Bundesliga table. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0% and both teams expected to score (67.0% probability). With Champions League places in reach for both, this has the feel of a six‑pointer.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen come into this one with two big away wins at Dortmund (1-0) and FC Köln (2-1) wrapped around a frustrating 2-1 home defeat to Augsburg, where they dominated with 35 shots and 11 corners but still lost. That pattern sums them up lately: plenty of attacking thrust, creating chances in volume, but not always turning that superiority into clean, comfortable scorelines. Over their last five matches they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 3.038 expected goals for and 1.348 against. Leipzig, meanwhile, arrive in Leverkusen in outstanding form after three straight wins: 3-1 at home to Union Berlin, 3-1 away at Eintracht Frankfurt and a controlled 1-0 home victory over M’gladbach. They’ve been more balanced than explosive: 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average in their last five, underpinned by 2.02 xG for and just 1.234 xG against, plus two clean sheets in that span. Where Leverkusen’s recent results have been a little chaotic, Leipzig’s look more controlled – a sign of a side that knows how to manage games and protect leads.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0%, and the recent scorelines support that view. Two of Leverkusen’s last three matches finished 2-1 (both over 2.5), with only the 1-0 win at Dortmund landing under 2.5. Leipzig’s last three have produced two 3-1 wins and a 1-0, so again two out of three over 2.5. With Leverkusen averaging 2.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Leipzig at 1.8 for and 1.0 against, backed by healthy xG figures on both sides, this does not look like a cagey, low‑chance affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.04, a figure that matches the way both sides like to attack. Leverkusen’s last three games have seen corner counts of 5-2, 11-4 and 5-5, consistently high especially when they’re chasing or dominating the ball. Leipzig have been just as productive from wide areas, racking up 10-4, 6-4 and 11-4 in corners. With two front-foot teams, this corners prediction of roughly ten predicted corners fits a game where both will push full-backs high and sustain pressure in the final third.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 26.08 expected shots in total, suggesting an open contest with both keepers busy. Leverkusen’s last three outings have been shot-heavy: 8-25, 35-11 and 11-14, showing their willingness to pepper the goal but also to allow attempts at the other end. Leipzig are similar: 20-5, 19-16 and 24-15 in their last three underlines their attacking intent and ability to pin opponents back. Given both teams’ strong xG outputs over the past five games, those expected shots numbers look entirely in line with their aggressive styles.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leverkusen wins by X goals. Negative = RB Leipzig wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is a narrow +0.17 in favour of Leverkusen, reflecting only a marginal expected spread despite the home advantage. Across their last three games, Leverkusen have a combined goal difference of +1 (4 scored, 3 conceded), while Leipzig are at +5 (7 scored, 2 conceded), which explains why the visitors are not far behind in the win probabilities. The small positive spread toward the home side aligns with Leverkusen’s powerful attack, but Leipzig’s tighter defence and recent goal margins keep this forecast very tight.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen’s edge comes mainly from their attacking volume and home advantage, while Leipzig’s more balanced recent form keeps them well in the contest. The decisive factor may be which side handles defensive transitions better against such high‑tempo attacks. Watch the battle in wide areas and the shot count: if Leverkusen turn their expected chances into goals early, Leipzig will be forced into a more open game that suits the home side.

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