RB Leipzig
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#23 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #4 of 18 59.8 expected pts · currently 9 pts after 5 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 18 in Bundesliga 65 pts · 20W-5D-9L · GD +19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is RB Leipzig?
On script 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, RB Leipzig's results were 13.9% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | RB Leipzig | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 73.1% | 55.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 73.1% | 63.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 59.1% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | #7 | 1522 | 1522 | 1520 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #4 | 1476 | 1639 | 1616 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #9 | 1518 | 1625 | 1496 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1482 | 1660 | 1644 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1502 | 1652 | 1652 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #5 | 1482 | 1667 | 1596 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #4 | 1520 | 1660 | 1570 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1534 | 1664 | 1632 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1478 | 1684 | 1649 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | #8 | 1480 | 1603 | 1515 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #4 | 1502 | 1674 | 1580 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | vs St Pauli | W RB Leipzig 78.0% · draw 12.0% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Leverkusen | L RB Leipzig 31.5% · draw 25.0% | L ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Union Berlin | W RB Leipzig 72.9% · draw 14.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | W RB Leipzig 45.2% · draw 24.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W RB Leipzig 70.1% · draw 15.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Werder Bremen | W RB Leipzig 45.2% · draw 24.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Hoffenheim | W RB Leipzig 39.6% · draw 22.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Stuttgart | L RB Leipzig 30.7% · draw 25.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Augsburg | W RB Leipzig 84.7% · draw 8.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | at Hamburg | W RB Leipzig 69.5% · draw 14.6% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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