RB Leipzig

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1616 · #4 Bundesliga On script Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #4 of 18 54.4 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 8.4%
Champions League 44.5%
Europa League 18.9%
Relegation playoff 1.1%
Relegation 0.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is RB Leipzig?

On script 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, RB Leipzig's results were 12.8% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketRB LeipzigLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 71.4% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 75.0% 63.9%
Both teams to score 64.3% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #4 1476 1639 1616
2024-25 Bundesliga #9 1518 1625 1496
2023-24 Bundesliga #3 1482 1660 1644
2022-23 Bundesliga #2 1502 1652 1652
2021-22 Bundesliga #5 1482 1667 1596
2020-21 Bundesliga #4 1520 1660 1570
2019-20 Bundesliga #2 1534 1664 1632
2018-19 Bundesliga #3 1478 1684 1649
2017-18 Bundesliga #8 1480 1603 1515
2016-17 Bundesliga #4 1502 1674 1580

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 vs St Pauli W RB Leipzig 78.0% · draw 12.0% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Leverkusen L RB Leipzig 31.5% · draw 25.0% L ✓
Apr 24, 2026 vs Union Berlin W RB Leipzig 72.9% · draw 14.4% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Eintracht Frankfurt W RB Leipzig 45.2% · draw 24.4% W ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach W RB Leipzig 70.1% · draw 15.7% W ✓
Apr 04, 2026 at Werder Bremen W RB Leipzig 47.2% · draw 24.0% W ✓
Mar 20, 2026 vs Hoffenheim W RB Leipzig 47.7% · draw 22.6% W ✓
Mar 15, 2026 at Stuttgart L RB Leipzig 22.6% · draw 21.9% L ✓
Mar 07, 2026 vs Augsburg W RB Leipzig 66.6% · draw 17.3% W ✓
Mar 01, 2026 at Hamburg W RB Leipzig 47.7% · draw 23.8% W ✓

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