FC Köln

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1373 · #16 Bundesliga In line Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #16 of 18 38.9 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.2%
Champions League 3.5%
Europa League 4.6%
Relegation playoff 10.5%
Relegation 23.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is FC Köln?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, FC Köln's results were 7.0% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketFC KölnLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 50.0% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 64.3% 63.9%
Both teams to score 78.6% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #16 1529 1547 1373
2024-25 2. Bundesliga #2 1512 1632 1602
2023-24 Bundesliga #17 1482 1482 1376
2022-23 Bundesliga #9 1520 1545 1487
2021-22 Bundesliga #8 1520 1598 1525
2020-21 Bundesliga #15 1471 1479 1426
2019-20 Bundesliga #16 1482 1548 1402
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #5 1537 1669 1550
2017-18 Bundesliga #18 1453 1453 1355
2016-17 Bundesliga #6 1520 1575 1515
2015-16 Bundesliga #7 1533 1545 1499
2014-15 Bundesliga #7 1498 1534 1488

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 vs Heidenheim W FC Köln 69.9% · draw 15.8% L ✗
May 02, 2026 at Union Berlin W FC Köln 40.9% · draw 25.5% D ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Leverkusen L FC Köln 23.8% · draw 21.1% L ✓
Apr 17, 2026 at St Pauli W FC Köln 50.2% · draw 22.9% D ✗
Apr 12, 2026 vs Werder Bremen W FC Köln 50.8% · draw 23.7% W ✓
Apr 05, 2026 at Eintracht Frankfurt L FC Köln 25.8% · draw 23.7% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach W FC Köln 42.9% · draw 24.9% D ✗
Mar 14, 2026 at Hamburg L FC Köln 23.0% · draw 21.7% D ✗
Mar 07, 2026 vs Dortmund L FC Köln 20.7% · draw 19.1% L ✓
Feb 27, 2026 at Augsburg L FC Köln 31.1% · draw 25.6% L ✓

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