FC Köln

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1481 · #14 Bundesliga 2W-1D-2L · 7 pts Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 18 39.0 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 5 matches

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 0.3%
Europa League 2.0%
Relegation playoff 9.6%
Relegation 10.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is FC Köln?

Sample still small 2025-26 · 2 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, FC Köln's results were 1.1% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketFC KölnLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 50.0% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 0.0% 63.2%
Both teams to score 50.0% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #14 1518 1518 1481
2025-26 Bundesliga #16 1529 1547 1373
2024-25 2. Bundesliga #2 1512 1632 1602
2023-24 Bundesliga #17 1482 1482 1376
2022-23 Bundesliga #9 1520 1545 1487
2021-22 Bundesliga #8 1520 1598 1525
2020-21 Bundesliga #15 1471 1479 1426
2019-20 Bundesliga #16 1482 1548 1402
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #5 1537 1669 1550
2017-18 Bundesliga #18 1453 1453 1355
2016-17 Bundesliga #6 1520 1575 1515
2015-16 Bundesliga #7 1533 1545 1499
2014-15 Bundesliga #7 1498 1534 1488

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 25, 2025 at Dortmund L FC Köln 7.1% · draw 8.9% L ✓
Oct 18, 2025 vs Augsburg W FC Köln 65.3% · draw 17.9% D ✗

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