Augsburg

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1528 · #6 Bundesliga 2W-2D-1L · 8 pts Chaos club Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #6 of 18 52.9 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 5 matches

League title 0.5%
Champions League places 20.4%
Europa League 30.9%
Relegation playoff 0.2%
Relegation 0.1%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Augsburg?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Augsburg's results were 13.3% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketAugsburgLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 50.0% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 65.4% 63.2%
Both teams to score 57.7% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #6 1522 1555 1528
2025-26 Bundesliga #7 1533 1545 1545
2024-25 Bundesliga #12 1498 1576 1444
2023-24 Bundesliga #11 1498 1529 1432
2022-23 Bundesliga #17 1466 1513 1386
2021-22 Bundesliga #12 1466 1492 1453
2020-21 Bundesliga #16 1533 1553 1384
2019-20 Bundesliga #13 1477 1535 1412
2018-19 Bundesliga #16 1529 1529 1389
2017-18 Bundesliga #15 1482 1552 1428
2016-17 Bundesliga #12 1467 1498 1450
2015-16 Bundesliga #9 1471 1512 1470
2014-15 Bundesliga #6 1480 1568 1495

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach W Augsburg 47.3% · draw 25.1% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Werder Bremen L Augsburg 21.4% · draw 21.2% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Eintracht Frankfurt W Augsburg 38.4% · draw 25.6% D ✗
Apr 18, 2026 at Leverkusen L Augsburg 17.0% · draw 17.9% W ✗
Apr 10, 2026 vs Hoffenheim L Augsburg 26.7% · draw 22.4% D ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Hamburg L Augsburg 22.5% · draw 21.7% D ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs Stuttgart L Augsburg 22.1% · draw 20.1% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Dortmund L Augsburg 5.0% · draw 7.0% L ✓
Mar 07, 2026 at RB Leipzig L Augsburg 6.6% · draw 8.7% L ✓
Feb 21, 2026 at Wolfsburg L Augsburg 17.4% · draw 19.3% W ✗

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