Augsburg

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1545 · #7 Bundesliga Chaos club Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #8 of 18 48.1 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 2.3%
Champions League 19.8%
Europa League 15.7%
Relegation playoff 3.4%
Relegation 4.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Augsburg?

Chaos club 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Augsburg's results were 10.9% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketAugsburgLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.6% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 60.7% 63.9%
Both teams to score 53.6% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #7 1533 1545 1545
2024-25 Bundesliga #12 1498 1576 1444
2023-24 Bundesliga #11 1498 1529 1432
2022-23 Bundesliga #17 1466 1513 1386
2021-22 Bundesliga #12 1466 1492 1453
2020-21 Bundesliga #16 1533 1553 1384
2019-20 Bundesliga #13 1477 1535 1412
2018-19 Bundesliga #16 1529 1529 1389
2017-18 Bundesliga #15 1482 1552 1428
2016-17 Bundesliga #12 1467 1498 1450
2015-16 Bundesliga #9 1471 1512 1470
2014-15 Bundesliga #6 1480 1568 1495

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach W Augsburg 47.3% · draw 25.1% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Werder Bremen L Augsburg 21.4% · draw 21.2% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Eintracht Frankfurt W Augsburg 38.4% · draw 25.6% D ✗
Apr 18, 2026 at Leverkusen L Augsburg 17.0% · draw 17.9% W ✗
Apr 10, 2026 vs Hoffenheim L Augsburg 26.7% · draw 22.4% D ✗
Apr 04, 2026 at Hamburg L Augsburg 20.0% · draw 20.1% D ✗
Mar 22, 2026 vs Stuttgart L Augsburg 21.8% · draw 19.8% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Dortmund L Augsburg 12.4% · draw 14.2% L ✓
Mar 07, 2026 at RB Leipzig L Augsburg 16.2% · draw 17.3% L ✓
Feb 27, 2026 vs FC Köln W Augsburg 43.2% · draw 25.6% W ✓

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