Leverkusen

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1559 · #4 Bundesliga 3W-1D-1L · 10 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #3 of 18 61.1 expected pts · currently 10 pts after 5 matches

League title 7.0%
Champions League places 66.5%
Europa League 23.0%
Relegation playoff 0.0%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Leverkusen?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 26 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Leverkusen's results were 8.5% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketLeverkusenLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.8% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 57.7% 63.2%
Both teams to score 61.5% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #4 1482 1559 1559
2025-26 Bundesliga #5 1471 1614 1592
2024-25 Bundesliga #2 1529 1713 1639
2023-24 Bundesliga #1 1518 1793 1793
2022-23 Bundesliga #6 1482 1618 1529
2021-22 Bundesliga #2 1502 1625 1625
2020-21 Bundesliga #8 1502 1643 1502
2019-20 Bundesliga #5 1518 1659 1586
2018-19 Bundesliga #4 1480 1616 1611
2017-18 Bundesliga #5 1480 1605 1542
2016-17 Bundesliga #11 1482 1542 1460
2015-16 Bundesliga #3 1518 1623 1606
2014-15 Bundesliga #4 1533 1662 1614

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Stuttgart L Leverkusen 34.4% · draw 24.2% L ✓
May 02, 2026 vs RB Leipzig W Leverkusen 43.5% · draw 25.0% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Augsburg W Leverkusen 65.0% · draw 17.9% L ✗
Apr 11, 2026 at Dortmund L Leverkusen 23.7% · draw 21.6% W ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Wolfsburg W Leverkusen 60.2% · draw 20.1% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Heidenheim W Leverkusen 62.0% · draw 18.5% D ✗
Mar 14, 2026 vs Bayern Munich L Leverkusen 2.2% · draw 3.0% D ✗
Mar 07, 2026 at Freiburg W Leverkusen 68.2% · draw 15.4% D ✗
Mar 04, 2026 at Hamburg W Leverkusen 76.6% · draw 11.6% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 vs Mainz W Leverkusen 75.1% · draw 13.3% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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