Bundesliga 2025-2026: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Prediction - 24 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

RB Leipzig

Home Team
73%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.9
Expected Spread: +1.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 30 25 4 1 109 29 80 79
2 Dortmund 30 19 7 4 61 31 30 64
3 RB Leipzig 30 18 5 7 59 37 22 59
4 Stuttgart 30 17 5 8 62 42 20 56
5 Hoffenheim 30 16 6 8 59 44 15 54
6 Leverkusen 30 15 7 8 60 41 19 52
7 Freiburg 30 12 7 11 44 48 -4 43
8 Ein Frankfurt 30 11 9 10 55 57 -2 42
9 Augsburg 30 10 6 14 38 54 -16 36
10 Mainz 30 8 10 12 36 45 -9 34
11 Union Berlin 30 8 8 14 34 52 -18 32
12 FC Koln 30 7 10 13 44 51 -7 31
13 M'gladbach 30 7 10 13 36 50 -14 31
14 Hamburg 30 7 10 13 33 48 -15 31
15 Werder Bremen 30 8 7 15 35 53 -18 31
16 St Pauli 30 6 8 16 26 51 -25 26
17 Wolfsburg 30 6 6 18 41 66 -25 24
18 Heidenheim 30 4 7 19 33 66 -33 19

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)

Union Berlin L L D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

xG (avg) 2.74
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 2

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 0.93
xGA (avg) 2.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig are strong favourites here, with a 73.0% probability of a home win against a Union Berlin side given just a 13.0% chance, and a 14.0% likelihood of a draw. Leipzig sit 3rd in the Bundesliga on 59 points, chasing Champions League security, while Union are 11th on 32 points and still glancing nervously over their shoulder at the bottom. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0% and Leipzig clearly expected to impose themselves.

Match Analysis

Leipzig come into this with real momentum: three wins from their last three – 3-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, 1-0 at home to M’gladbach and 2-1 away at Werder Bremen. They’ve shown they can win both in control (11-4 corners, 24-15 shots vs M’gladbach) and in more pragmatic fashion (only 7 shots to Bremen’s 13, yet still taking the points). Over the last five matches, Leipzig are averaging 2.4 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded, supported by strong underlying numbers of 2.738 expected goals for and 1.578 against, plus two clean sheets – all signs of a side playing with balance and confidence. Union Berlin arrive in far shakier form: back-to-back defeats against Wolfsburg (1-2 at home) and Heidenheim (1-3 away), followed by a 1-1 home draw with St Pauli. The results underline their problems at both ends: only 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average over the last five, with xG figures of just 0.934 for and a worrying 2.83 against. They are creating relatively little and allowing plenty, which is a dangerous mix against one of the league’s stronger attacking outfits.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 61.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Leipzig’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 and 2-1), with only the 1-0 vs M’gladbach falling under 2.5. Union have also seen two of their last three go over – the 1-2 and 1-3 defeats – with just the 1-1 draw under. Leipzig’s average of 2.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, combined with Union’s 0.8 for and 2.2 against, plus Leipzig’s high attacking xG, all point towards another open contest rather than an under 2.5 scrap.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.42, a moderate but active corners prediction for this matchup. Leipzig’s last three have produced corner counts of 6-4, 11-4 and 0-1, showing they can rack up corners when they dominate territory, especially at home. Union’s games have been corner-heavy too – 11-4, 5-3 and 7-2 – reflecting a team that spends long stretches defending and clearing their lines. With Leipzig likely to press high and Union often pinned back, the predicted corners figure around nine to ten looks well aligned with both sides’ recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model points to 26.91 expected shots in total, a healthy shots prediction for a game where one side is heavily favoured. Leipzig’s last three outings saw combined shot totals of 35, 39 and 20, while Union’s produced 30, 17 and 25. Those numbers fit closely with the expected shots figure here, especially with Leipzig’s recent xG of 2.738 per match suggesting frequent shooting opportunities. Union, meanwhile, have allowed their opponents plenty of efforts, which should further inflate Leipzig’s shot count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = RB Leipzig wins by X goals. Negative = Union Berlin wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin with expected spread of +1.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Leipzig -1.26, indicating the home side are expected to win by a bit more than a single goal on average. Leipzig’s recent goal differences (+2 vs Frankfurt, +1 vs Bremen, +1 vs M’gladbach) match a team consistently edging games, while Union’s -1, -2 and 0 in their last three underline their defensive issues. With a 73.0% home-win probability and Leipzig’s superior scoring and xG profile against Union’s leaky back line, the expected spread in favour of the hosts is entirely consistent with the broader picture.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s edge comes from a mix of form, firepower and underlying numbers: they’re creating more, conceding less, and turning performances into results. Union’s fragile defence and low attacking output make this a daunting trip to a top-three side. The key factor to watch will be how early Leipzig can impose their attacking rhythm – if they start fast, Union may struggle to keep the scoreline in check.

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