Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1393 · #15 Bundesliga In line Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #17 of 18 38.5 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.2%
Champions League 3.6%
Europa League 4.6%
Relegation playoff 10.7%
Relegation 24.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Werder Bremen?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Werder Bremen's results were 0.6% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketWerder BremenLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 57.1% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 42.9% 63.9%
Both teams to score 50.0% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #15 1478 1513 1393
2024-25 Bundesliga #5 1502 1554 1554
2023-24 Bundesliga #8 1466 1545 1516
2022-23 Bundesliga #18 1502 1546 1378
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #2 1496 1674 1644
2020-21 Bundesliga #17 1466 1521 1351
2019-20 Bundesliga #15 1467 1502 1406
2018-19 Bundesliga #5 1498 1596 1596
2017-18 Bundesliga #7 1482 1541 1530
2016-17 Bundesliga #5 1476 1607 1537
2015-16 Bundesliga #8 1466 1517 1471
2014-15 Bundesliga #8 1502 1549 1485

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Hoffenheim L Werder Bremen 12.8% · draw 14.5% L ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Augsburg W Werder Bremen 57.4% · draw 21.2% L ✗
Apr 26, 2026 at Stuttgart L Werder Bremen 10.4% · draw 12.4% D ✗
Apr 18, 2026 vs Hamburg W Werder Bremen 57.3% · draw 21.2% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at FC Köln L Werder Bremen 25.5% · draw 23.7% L ✓
Apr 04, 2026 vs RB Leipzig L Werder Bremen 28.8% · draw 24.0% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Wolfsburg L Werder Bremen 22.2% · draw 21.6% W ✗
Mar 15, 2026 vs Mainz W Werder Bremen 46.5% · draw 24.9% L ✗
Mar 08, 2026 at Union Berlin L Werder Bremen 31.4% · draw 25.5% W ✗
Feb 28, 2026 vs Heidenheim W Werder Bremen 60.4% · draw 19.9% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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