Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1531 · #5 Bundesliga 2W-2D-1L · 8 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #9 of 18 44.2 expected pts · currently 8 pts after 5 matches

League title 0.0%
Champions League places 1.9%
Europa League 8.1%
Relegation playoff 3.6%
Relegation 2.6%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Werder Bremen?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 25 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Werder Bremen's results were 7.3% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketWerder BremenLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 64.0% 55.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.0% 63.2%
Both teams to score 44.0% 59.1%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 Bundesliga #5 1478 1531 1531
2025-26 Bundesliga #15 1478 1513 1393
2024-25 Bundesliga #5 1502 1554 1554
2023-24 Bundesliga #8 1466 1545 1516
2022-23 Bundesliga #18 1502 1546 1378
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #2 1496 1674 1644
2020-21 Bundesliga #17 1466 1521 1351
2019-20 Bundesliga #15 1467 1502 1406
2018-19 Bundesliga #5 1498 1596 1596
2017-18 Bundesliga #7 1482 1541 1530
2016-17 Bundesliga #5 1476 1607 1537
2015-16 Bundesliga #8 1466 1517 1471
2014-15 Bundesliga #8 1502 1549 1485

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Hoffenheim L Werder Bremen 12.8% · draw 14.5% L ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Augsburg W Werder Bremen 57.4% · draw 21.2% L ✗
Apr 26, 2026 at Stuttgart L Werder Bremen 10.4% · draw 12.4% D ✗
Apr 18, 2026 vs Hamburg W Werder Bremen 57.3% · draw 21.2% W ✓
Apr 04, 2026 vs RB Leipzig L Werder Bremen 30.2% · draw 24.6% L ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Wolfsburg L Werder Bremen 27.3% · draw 22.7% W ✗
Mar 15, 2026 vs Mainz W Werder Bremen 52.3% · draw 24.0% L ✗
Mar 08, 2026 at Union Berlin W Werder Bremen 40.8% · draw 25.2% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 vs Heidenheim W Werder Bremen 72.4% · draw 15.0% W ✓
Feb 22, 2026 at St Pauli L Werder Bremen 32.3% · draw 26.3% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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