Bundesliga 2025-2026: Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Stuttgart

Home Team
77%
VS

Werder Bremen

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 27.3
Expected Spread: +1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 30 25 4 1 109 29 80 79
2 Dortmund 30 19 7 4 61 31 30 64
3 RB Leipzig 30 18 5 7 59 37 22 59
4 Stuttgart 30 17 5 8 62 42 20 56
5 Hoffenheim 30 16 6 8 59 44 15 54
6 Leverkusen 30 15 7 8 60 41 19 52
7 Freiburg 30 12 7 11 44 48 -4 43
8 Ein Frankfurt 30 11 9 10 55 57 -2 42
9 Augsburg 30 10 6 14 38 54 -16 36
10 Mainz 30 8 10 12 36 45 -9 34
11 Union Berlin 30 8 8 14 34 52 -18 32
12 FC Koln 30 7 10 13 44 51 -7 31
13 M'gladbach 30 7 10 13 36 50 -14 31
14 Hamburg 30 7 10 13 33 48 -15 31
15 Werder Bremen 30 8 7 15 35 53 -18 31
16 St Pauli 30 6 8 16 26 51 -25 26
17 Wolfsburg 30 6 6 18 41 66 -25 24
18 Heidenheim 30 4 7 19 33 66 -33 19

Recent Trends

Stuttgart L W L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)

Werder Bremen W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.37
xGA (avg) 0.86
Clean Sheets 2

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.34
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are clear favourites at home, with a 77.0% probability of winning against a Werder Bremen side fighting in the lower half of the Bundesliga table. Sitting 4th with 56 points, Stuttgart are pushing for the Champions League, while 15th‑placed Werder (31 points) are still looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle. The model points to a home win combined with an over 2.5 prediction, with a 64.0% chance of at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Stuttgart come in off a mixed run of high‑profile games: a 4–2 defeat away at leaders Bayern, a dominant 4–0 home win over Hamburg, and a 2–0 home loss to Dortmund. Even in defeat, they have created plenty, out‑shooting Dortmund 13–5 and matching Bayern for long spells. Their recent averages underline that: 2.4 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded in the last five, backed by 2.37 expected goals for and only 0.86 against. Two clean sheets in that spell suggest a side largely in control of matches. Werder Bremen’s last three tell a more fragile story. They beat Hamburg 3–1 at home but were outplayed 3–1 at Köln, taking only six shots to Köln’s 25, and lost 2–1 at home to RB Leipzig. Over their last five, Werder average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 1.25 xG for and 1.344 xG against – competitive, but not at Stuttgart’s level. Their negative goal difference across the season (-18) and mid‑table metrics point to a team that can threaten but struggles to control games, especially away.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed strongly at 64.0%. Two of Stuttgart’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (4–2 vs Bayern, 4–0 vs Hamburg), with only the 2–0 loss to Dortmund staying under. All three of Werder’s recent matches hit at least three goals (3–1, 3–1, 2–1), reinforcing a clear trend. With Stuttgart averaging 2.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, and Werder at 1.4 for and 1.4 against, plus xG numbers above 1 per game for both, the data supports a match with goals rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction points to around 10.11 total corners. Stuttgart’s last three have produced 14, 10 and 7 corners respectively, as they tend to pin opponents back: they racked up 8–2 corners against Hamburg and still had 5–2 against Dortmund even in defeat. Werder’s games have seen 10, 13 and 1 corner, with the Köln match (5–8) underlining how they can be forced deep away from home. With Stuttgart likely to attack relentlessly at home, the predicted corners total around 10 fits an open, front‑foot game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches
Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 27.27 total efforts, which matches what we’ve seen recently. Stuttgart’s last three matches featured 11, 23 and 13 shots of their own, regularly pushing into double figures, while facing 28 from Bayern and only 5 from Dortmund. Werder have managed 18, 6 and 13 attempts, but the Köln game showed how vulnerable they are to being peppered, conceding 25 shots. Given Stuttgart’s strong xG of 2.37 and Werder’s respectable attacking output (1.25 xG), the expected shots figure is consistent with both sides creating chances, but with the home side leading the volume.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Stuttgart wins by X goals. Negative = Werder Bremen wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +1.11 in favour of Stuttgart, reflecting an expectation that the hosts win by around a goal to a goal and a half. Over their last three, Stuttgart’s goal differences have been -2 (2–4 vs Bayern), +4 (4–0 vs Hamburg) and -2 (0–2 vs Dortmund) – volatile, but with clear capacity for big wins. Werder’s recent goal differences of +2, -2 and -1 show a side that can compete but more often ends up narrowly on the wrong side. Coupled with a 77.0% home‑win probability and Stuttgart’s superior attacking and defensive numbers, the expected spread looks justified.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s push for the top four, superior recent xG, and strong home performances give them a clear edge over a Werder side marooned in 15th and still inconsistent away from home. If Stuttgart hit their usual attacking rhythm, Werder’s back line could struggle to contain the pressure. A key factor to watch will be how quickly Stuttgart can turn territorial dominance into goals – an early breakthrough could turn this into a long night for the visitors.

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