Bayern Munich
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#3 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Oct 20, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #1 of 18 72.7 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 5 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 18 in Bundesliga 89 pts · 28W-5D-1L · GD +86
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bayern Munich?
On script 2025-26 · 27 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bayern Munich's results were 23.3% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bayern Munich | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 77.8% | 55.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 92.6% | 63.2% |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | 59.1% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1523 | 1568 | 1568 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1524 | 1785 | 1774 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1529 | 1741 | 1724 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #5 | 1534 | 1680 | 1576 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1534 | 1690 | 1647 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1502 | 1723 | 1662 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1524 | 1745 | 1713 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1498 | 1794 | 1794 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1520 | 1746 | 1742 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1520 | 1751 | 1710 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1524 | 1743 | 1743 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #1 | 1524 | 1749 | 1749 |
| 2014-15 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1518 | 1741 | 1623 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | at Wolfsburg | W Bayern Munich 71.1% · draw 14.6% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Heidenheim | W Bayern Munich 89.9% · draw 6.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Mainz | W Bayern Munich 59.7% · draw 19.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Stuttgart | W Bayern Munich 79.0% · draw 11.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at St Pauli | W Bayern Munich 76.9% · draw 12.0% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Freiburg | W Bayern Munich 64.5% · draw 17.5% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Union Berlin | W Bayern Munich 89.9% · draw 6.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Leverkusen | W Bayern Munich 94.9% · draw 3.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W Bayern Munich 98.9% · draw 0.7% | W ✓ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Dortmund | W Bayern Munich 90.6% · draw 5.2% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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