Bayern Munich

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1774 · #1 Bundesliga On script Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #1 of 18 66.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 52.5%
Champions League 88.7%
Europa League 6.1%
Relegation playoff 0.0%
Relegation 0.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Bayern Munich?

On script 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bayern Munich's results were 29.5% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketBayern MunichLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 78.6% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 92.9% 63.9%
Both teams to score 64.3% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #1 1524 1785 1774
2024-25 Bundesliga #1 1529 1741 1724
2023-24 Bundesliga #5 1534 1680 1576
2022-23 Bundesliga #3 1534 1690 1647
2021-22 Bundesliga #1 1502 1723 1662
2020-21 Bundesliga #1 1524 1745 1713
2019-20 Bundesliga #1 1498 1794 1794
2018-19 Bundesliga #1 1520 1746 1742
2017-18 Bundesliga #1 1520 1751 1710
2016-17 Bundesliga #1 1524 1743 1743
2015-16 Bundesliga #1 1524 1749 1749
2014-15 Bundesliga #3 1518 1741 1623

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 at Wolfsburg W Bayern Munich 71.1% · draw 14.6% W ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Heidenheim W Bayern Munich 89.9% · draw 6.0% D ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at Mainz W Bayern Munich 59.7% · draw 19.3% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Stuttgart W Bayern Munich 79.0% · draw 11.5% W ✓
Apr 11, 2026 at St Pauli W Bayern Munich 76.9% · draw 12.0% W ✓
Apr 04, 2026 at Freiburg W Bayern Munich 66.8% · draw 16.4% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 vs Union Berlin W Bayern Munich 87.2% · draw 7.4% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at Leverkusen W Bayern Munich 69.4% · draw 15.3% D ✗
Mar 06, 2026 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach W Bayern Munich 89.0% · draw 6.5% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 at Dortmund W Bayern Munich 65.0% · draw 17.2% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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