Stuttgart
Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#20 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #8 of 18 49.0 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #4 of 18 in Bundesliga 62 pts · 18W-8D-8L · GD +22
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Stuttgart?
On script 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Stuttgart's results were 10.1% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Stuttgart | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 60.7% | 55.6% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 75.0% | 63.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 59.9% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1477 | 1477 | 1477 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | #3 | 1482 | 1633 | 1620 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #8 | 1480 | 1572 | 1523 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1524 | 1679 | 1679 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #12 | 1498 | 1500 | 1454 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #14 | 1523 | 1523 | 1435 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #12 | 1471 | 1565 | 1468 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1518 | 1619 | 1543 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #15 | 1482 | 1482 | 1398 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | #2 | 1480 | 1630 | 1630 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #17 | 1467 | 1543 | 1366 |
| 2014-15 | Bundesliga | #10 | 1502 | 1502 | 1471 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 09, 2026 | vs Leverkusen | W Stuttgart 41.4% · draw 24.2% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Hoffenheim | L Stuttgart 30.2% · draw 23.0% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Werder Bremen | W Stuttgart 77.2% · draw 12.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Bayern Munich | L Stuttgart 9.5% · draw 11.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Hamburg | W Stuttgart 73.1% · draw 14.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Dortmund | W Stuttgart 51.0% · draw 22.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Augsburg | W Stuttgart 58.4% · draw 19.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W Stuttgart 55.4% · draw 21.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Mainz | W Stuttgart 55.3% · draw 21.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | vs Wolfsburg | W Stuttgart 75.2% · draw 13.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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