Hamburg

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1461 · #11 Bundesliga In line Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 18 41.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 0.4%
Champions League 5.6%
Europa League 7.5%
Relegation playoff 8.0%
Relegation 15.8%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Hamburg?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Hamburg's results were 9.0% harder to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketHamburgLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 53.6% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 71.4% 63.9%
Both teams to score 75.0% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #11 1469 1494 1461
2024-25 2. Bundesliga #3 1585 1686 1594
2023-24 2. Bundesliga #5 1616 1655 1572
2022-23 2. Bundesliga #3 1610 1676 1616
2021-22 2. Bundesliga #3 1554 1651 1619
2020-21 2. Bundesliga #8 1510 1622 1528
2019-20 2. Bundesliga #9 1479 1602 1481
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #12 1471 1635 1474
2017-18 Bundesliga #13 1518 1547 1435
2016-17 Bundesliga #10 1498 1539 1466
2015-16 Bundesliga #13 1476 1542 1454
2014-15 Bundesliga #14 1502 1502 1443

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 10, 2026 vs Freiburg W Hamburg 48.9% · draw 23.9% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Eintracht Frankfurt L Hamburg 18.9% · draw 19.4% W ✗
Apr 25, 2026 vs Hoffenheim L Hamburg 35.9% · draw 23.8% L ✓
Apr 18, 2026 at Werder Bremen L Hamburg 21.5% · draw 21.2% L ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Stuttgart L Hamburg 12.6% · draw 14.3% L ✓
Apr 04, 2026 vs Augsburg W Hamburg 59.9% · draw 20.1% D ✗
Mar 21, 2026 at Dortmund L Hamburg 10.8% · draw 12.7% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs FC Köln W Hamburg 55.2% · draw 21.7% D ✗
Mar 07, 2026 at Wolfsburg L Hamburg 34.7% · draw 24.7% W ✗
Mar 04, 2026 vs Leverkusen L Hamburg 25.3% · draw 22.0% L ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

The Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/hamburg">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/bundesliga"
        width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
        title="Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/hamburg">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>
Preview widget All widgets