2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Bochum vs Bielefeld Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bochum

Home Team
38%
VS

Bielefeld

Away Team
31%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Bochum

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Bochum
Results & dominance +3.5 Bielefeld
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Bielefeld
Defense +0.7 Bielefeld

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Bochum. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Bielefeld defense +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Form & results +0.8 Over
Bielefeld attack & chance creation +0.7 Over
Bochum defense +0.5 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Bochum L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Hannover (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dresden (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Osnabruck (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Braunschweig (Goals: 1 - 0)

Bielefeld D L D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Darmstadt (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nurnberg (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cottbus (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bochum

Goals scored (avg, home) 0.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Bielefeld

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Bochum a 38% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Bielefeld at 31%. This is a tight call, with Bochum only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 59% of cases.

Match Analysis

Bochum arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWLW from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 5 with 1 clean sheet. Bielefeld arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDLW from most recent), scoring 9 and conceding 10 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Bochum sit 9th with 7 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1, while Bielefeld are 13th with 5 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Bochum 2 points clear of their opponent. Bochum average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Bielefeld average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Bochum), results & dominance (3.5 points toward Bielefeld), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (0.9 points toward Bielefeld). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bochum
Goals in last 5 matches
Bielefeld
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 45% and Over 2.5 at 55%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Bochum matches produced 2.0 goals on average over their last 5, Bielefeld matches 3.8. Both teams to score comes in at 59%, no goal for at least one side at 41%. In the model's own attribution, Bielefeld defense pulls toward Over by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bochum
Corners in last 5 matches
Bielefeld
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.1 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 57%, which leaves 43% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bochum
Shots in last 5 matches
Bielefeld
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 27.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 27. The chance of 27 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 28 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bochum wins by X goals. Negative = Bielefeld wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bochum vs Bielefeld with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bochum vs Bielefeld
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Bochum. The spread model gives 23% to a Bochum win by two goals or more and 43% to any Bielefeld win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Bochum win (38%), Over 2.5 (55%), Goal (59%). Expected totals: 10.1 corners and 27.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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