Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #13 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 39 pts · 10W–9D–15L · GD +2
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bielefeld?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bielefeld's results were 4.0% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bielefeld | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 31.0% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1523 | 1552 | 1470 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1618 | 1618 | 1458 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #17 | 1498 | 1512 | 1378 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #13 | 1502 | 1518 | 1465 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1549 | 1684 | 1684 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1511 | 1569 | 1569 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #8 | 1518 | 1562 | 1512 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Hertha | W Bielefeld 36.7% · draw 30.8% | W ✓ |
| May 08, 2026 | at Kaiserslautern | W Bielefeld 36.1% · draw 30.3% | L ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Bochum | W Bielefeld 36.1% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Preußen Münster | W Bielefeld 41.1% · draw 28.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Nurnberg | W Bielefeld 39.8% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Karlsruhe | W Bielefeld 38.8% · draw 29.2% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Darmstadt | L Bielefeld 33.7% · draw 29.6% | W ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Elversberg | L Bielefeld 21.2% · draw 26.6% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Paderborn | L Bielefeld 31.5% · draw 29.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Schalke 04 | L Bielefeld 25.8% · draw 30.2% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The 2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bielefeld">2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/bundesliga_2"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings — Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/bielefeld">2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>