Bochum

2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1462 · #12 2. Bundesliga 2W-1D-4L · 7 pts In line Updated Oct 11, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #12 of 18 41.1 expected pts · currently 7 pts after 7 matches

League title 0.0%
Promotion 0.4%
Automatic promotion 0.4%
Promotion barrage 1.0%
Relegation barrage 9.3%
Relegation 14.9%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Bochum?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bochum's results were 6.4% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketBochumLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 44.8% 47.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 53.6%
Both teams to score 69.0% 61.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 2. Bundesliga #12 1493 1524 1462
2025-26 2. Bundesliga #6 1478 1531 1510
2024-25 Bundesliga #18 1482 1482 1382
2023-24 Bundesliga #15 1476 1510 1398
2022-23 Bundesliga #13 1471 1472 1448
2021-22 Bundesliga #11 1482 1518 1471
2020-21 2. Bundesliga #2 1540 1641 1624
2019-20 2. Bundesliga #5 1456 1588 1557
2018-19 2. Bundesliga #13 1499 1562 1467
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #4 1471 1581 1545

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
Oct 11, 2026 vs Bielefeld W Bochum 37.8% · draw 31.1% L ✗
Sep 20, 2026 at Hannover L Bochum 28.3% · draw 30.3% L ✓

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