Bochum
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 44 pts · 11W–11D–12L · GD +2
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Bochum?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Bochum's results were 6.4% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Bochum | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 44.8% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1478 | 1531 | 1510 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1482 | 1382 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | #15 | 1476 | 1510 | 1398 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #13 | 1471 | 1472 | 1448 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #11 | 1482 | 1518 | 1471 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #2 | 1540 | 1641 | 1624 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1456 | 1588 | 1557 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1499 | 1562 | 1467 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1471 | 1581 | 1545 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Karlsruhe | W Bochum 38.6% · draw 29.3% | W ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Hannover | L Bochum 32.3% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Bielefeld | L Bochum 33.1% · draw 30.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Greuther Furth | W Bochum 54.9% · draw 25.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Dresden | W Bochum 35.3% · draw 30.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Braunschweig | W Bochum 44.5% · draw 28.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Magdeburg | L Bochum 32.6% · draw 30.8% | L ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Holstein Kiel | W Bochum 44.0% · draw 28.6% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Hertha | L Bochum 31.3% · draw 30.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Bochum 44.9% · draw 29.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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