2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Braunschweig

Home Team
33%
VS

Holstein Kiel

Away Team
37%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 28.7
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Holstein Kiel

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Braunschweig
Defense +5.1 Holstein Kiel
Results & dominance +3.8 Holstein Kiel
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.6 Holstein Kiel
Attack +1.0 Holstein Kiel

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Holstein Kiel. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Braunschweig attack & chance creation +3.7 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Braunschweig defense +2.1 Over
Form & results +1.7 Over
Holstein Kiel defense +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Braunschweig L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Dresden (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osnabruck (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bochum (Goals: 0 - 1)

Holstein Kiel D L D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Osnabruck (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nurnberg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Magdeburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Braunschweig

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.67
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.67
Clean Sheets 0

Holstein Kiel

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Braunschweig a 33% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Holstein Kiel at 37%. This is a tight call, with Holstein Kiel only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 58% and sees both teams scoring in 59% of cases.

Match Analysis

Braunschweig arrive with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLLL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 12 with 0 clean sheets. Holstein Kiel arrive with 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLDLD from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 8 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Braunschweig sit 15th with 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1, while Holstein Kiel are 16th with 4 points and a goal difference of -3. The two sides are level on points. Braunschweig average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Holstein Kiel average 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Braunschweig), defense (5.1 points toward Holstein Kiel), results & dominance (3.8 points toward Holstein Kiel). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Braunschweig
Goals in last 5 matches
Holstein Kiel
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 42% and Over 2.5 at 58%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Braunschweig matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Holstein Kiel matches 2.6. Both teams to score comes in at 59%, no goal for at least one side at 41%. In the model's own attribution, Braunschweig attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.7 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Braunschweig
Corners in last 5 matches
Holstein Kiel
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 54%, which leaves 46% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Braunschweig
Shots in last 5 matches
Holstein Kiel
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 50%, which leaves 50% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Braunschweig wins by X goals. Negative = Holstein Kiel wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Holstein Kiel. The spread model gives 18% to a Braunschweig win by two goals or more and 51% to any Holstein Kiel win. A Holstein Kiel win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Holstein Kiel win (37%), Over 2.5 (58%), Goal (59%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 28.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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