Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 41 pts · 11W–8D–15L · GD -4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Holstein Kiel?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Holstein Kiel's results were 4.2% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Holstein Kiel | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.4% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 72.4% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1482 | 1534 | 1476 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #16 | 1482 | 1482 | 1386 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1528 | 1685 | 1666 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1521 | 1570 | 1507 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1523 | 1556 | 1519 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1482 | 1622 | 1565 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1480 | 1561 | 1445 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1594 | 1615 | 1476 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1498 | 1621 | 1582 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Dresden | L Holstein Kiel 28.8% · draw 30.0% | L ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Magdeburg | W Holstein Kiel 42.3% · draw 29.2% | L ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Braunschweig | W Holstein Kiel 46.9% · draw 27.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | at Hertha | L Holstein Kiel 28.0% · draw 29.6% | W ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Holstein Kiel 41.3% · draw 29.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Fortuna Dusseldorf | L Holstein Kiel 29.8% · draw 30.4% | W ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Preußen Münster | W Holstein Kiel 39.6% · draw 29.6% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Bochum | L Holstein Kiel 27.4% · draw 28.6% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Nurnberg | W Holstein Kiel 35.8% · draw 30.8% | L ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Darmstadt | L Holstein Kiel 21.1% · draw 23.7% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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