Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #17 of 18 38.3 expected pts · currently 4 pts after 7 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #12 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 41 pts · 11W-8D-15L · GD -4
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Holstein Kiel?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Holstein Kiel's results were 4.2% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Holstein Kiel | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 41.4% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 72.4% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1501 | 1502 | 1449 |
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1482 | 1534 | 1476 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | #16 | 1482 | 1482 | 1386 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1528 | 1685 | 1666 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1521 | 1570 | 1507 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1523 | 1556 | 1519 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1482 | 1622 | 1565 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1480 | 1561 | 1445 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1594 | 1615 | 1476 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1498 | 1621 | 1582 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | at Braunschweig | W Holstein Kiel 37.3% · draw 29.8% | L ✗ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Osnabruck | W Holstein Kiel 49.2% · draw 28.0% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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