Braunschweig

2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1458 · #16 2. Bundesliga 1W-0D-2L · 3 pts In line Updated Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #10 of 18 44.2 expected pts · currently 3 pts after 3 matches

League title 1.1%
Promotion 3.0%
Automatic promotion 3.0%
Promotion barrage 3.2%
Relegation barrage 6.8%
Relegation 12.0%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Braunschweig?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Braunschweig's results were 6.2% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketBraunschweigLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 48.3% 47.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 44.8% 53.6%
Both teams to score 62.1% 61.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 2. Bundesliga #16 1514 1514 1458
2025-26 2. Bundesliga #16 1529 1546 1459
2024-25 2. Bundesliga #14 1450 1518 1463
2023-24 2. Bundesliga #12 1409 1507 1460
2022-23 2. Bundesliga #16 1380 1498 1415
2020-21 2. Bundesliga #18 1432 1454 1368
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #18 1502 1534 1430

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Schalke 04 L Braunschweig 17.4% · draw 22.6% L ✓
May 09, 2026 vs Dresden W Braunschweig 35.4% · draw 31.3% W ✓
May 02, 2026 at Holstein Kiel L Braunschweig 25.6% · draw 27.5% L ✓
Apr 24, 2026 at Kaiserslautern L Braunschweig 27.5% · draw 28.0% W ✗
Apr 19, 2026 vs Hertha L Braunschweig 31.2% · draw 29.2% D ✗
Apr 12, 2026 at Bochum L Braunschweig 26.8% · draw 28.7% L ✓
Apr 05, 2026 vs Nurnberg L Braunschweig 33.7% · draw 31.4% D ✗
Mar 20, 2026 at Hannover L Braunschweig 12.8% · draw 19.7% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf L Braunschweig 33.8% · draw 31.1% W ✗
Mar 07, 2026 at Paderborn L Braunschweig 17.1% · draw 22.8% D ✗

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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