Braunschweig
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #15 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 37 pts · 10W–7D–17L · GD -18
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Braunschweig?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Braunschweig's results were 6.2% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Braunschweig | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 48.3% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #16 | 1529 | 1546 | 1459 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1450 | 1518 | 1463 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1409 | 1507 | 1460 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #16 | 1380 | 1498 | 1415 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #18 | 1432 | 1454 | 1368 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #18 | 1502 | 1534 | 1430 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Schalke 04 | L Braunschweig 17.4% · draw 22.6% | L ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Dresden | W Braunschweig 35.4% · draw 31.3% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Holstein Kiel | L Braunschweig 25.6% · draw 27.5% | L ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Kaiserslautern | L Braunschweig 27.5% · draw 28.0% | W ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Hertha | L Braunschweig 31.2% · draw 29.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Bochum | L Braunschweig 26.8% · draw 28.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Nurnberg | L Braunschweig 33.7% · draw 31.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Hannover | L Braunschweig 12.8% · draw 19.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | L Braunschweig 33.8% · draw 31.1% | W ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Paderborn | L Braunschweig 17.1% · draw 22.8% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The 2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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