2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Greuther Furth vs Magdeburg Prediction - 18 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Greuther Furth

Home Team
34%
VS

Magdeburg

Away Team
36%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 26.7
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Magdeburg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Greuther Furth
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.7 Magdeburg
Defense +4.1 Magdeburg
Results & dominance +2.2 Magdeburg
Attack +2.1 Magdeburg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Magdeburg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Magdeburg attack & chance creation +2.6 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.6 Over
Form & results +1.0 Under
Greuther Furth attack & chance creation +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 53% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 5 5 0 0 15 6 9 15
2 Nurnberg 5 4 1 0 15 6 9 13
3 Heidenheim 5 4 0 1 12 10 2 12
4 Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
5 Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
6 Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 5 4 1 8
7 Cottbus 5 2 1 2 13 12 1 7
8 Bochum 5 2 1 2 4 4 0 7
9 St Pauli 5 1 3 1 7 7 0 6
10 Osnabruck 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
11 Greuther Furth 5 1 2 2 8 10 -2 5
12 Karlsruhe 5 1 2 2 6 11 -5 5
13 Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 12 12 0 4
14 Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 8 10 -2 4
15 Hannover 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
16 Darmstadt 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
17 Dresden 5 1 1 3 7 12 -5 4
18 Holstein Kiel 5 0 3 2 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Greuther Furth D L W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cottbus (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nurnberg (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)

Magdeburg W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Osnabruck (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Braunschweig (Goals: 1 - 6)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Greuther Furth

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.50
Clean Sheets 0

Magdeburg

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Greuther Furth a 34% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Magdeburg at 36%. This is a tight call, with Magdeburg only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 53% and sees both teams scoring in 61% of cases.

Match Analysis

Greuther Furth arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DLWLD from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. Magdeburg arrive with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLWWL from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 8 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Greuther Furth sit 11th with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -2, while Magdeburg are 4th with 9 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Magdeburg 4 points clear of their opponent. Greuther Furth average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Magdeburg average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Greuther Furth), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (4.7 points toward Magdeburg), defense (4.1 points toward Magdeburg). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Greuther Furth
Goals in last 5 matches
Magdeburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 47% and Over 2.5 at 53%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Greuther Furth matches produced 3.6 goals on average over their last 5, Magdeburg matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, no goal for at least one side at 39%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Magdeburg attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Greuther Furth
Corners in last 5 matches
Magdeburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.3 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Greuther Furth
Shots in last 5 matches
Magdeburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 26.7 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 26. The chance of 26 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 50% for 27 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Greuther Furth wins by X goals. Negative = Magdeburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Greuther Furth vs Magdeburg with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Greuther Furth vs Magdeburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Magdeburg. The spread model gives 18% to a Greuther Furth win by two goals or more and 51% to any Magdeburg win. A Magdeburg win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Magdeburg win (36%), Over 2.5 (53%), Goal (61%). Expected totals: 10.3 corners and 26.7 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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