Greuther Furth
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #16 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 37 pts · 10W–7D–17L · GD -19
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Greuther Furth?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Greuther Furth's results were 1.9% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Greuther Furth | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 55.2% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #13 | 1518 | 1518 | 1461 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1527 | 1551 | 1463 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1532 | 1624 | 1507 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1611 | 1611 | 1507 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1477 | 1477 | 1324 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1466 | 1647 | 1647 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1424 | 1551 | 1460 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1499 | 1570 | 1446 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1482 | 1548 | 1475 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | W Greuther Furth 36.1% · draw 29.9% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at Hertha | L Greuther Furth 18.1% · draw 24.9% | L ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Nurnberg | L Greuther Furth 31.4% · draw 29.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Bochum | L Greuther Furth 20.0% · draw 25.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Darmstadt | L Greuther Furth 28.1% · draw 27.0% | W ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Preußen Münster | L Greuther Furth 24.9% · draw 29.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Paderborn | L Greuther Furth 22.6% · draw 24.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | at Karlsruhe | L Greuther Furth 26.8% · draw 27.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Elversberg | L Greuther Furth 22.8% · draw 24.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Hannover | L Greuther Furth 10.9% · draw 17.4% | W ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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