Magdeburg
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 39 pts · 12W–3D–19L · GD -6
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Magdeburg?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Magdeburg's results were 1.9% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Magdeburg | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 58.6% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1471 | 1523 | 1484 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #8 | 1447 | 1612 | 1529 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1521 | 1583 | 1436 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #8 | 1414 | 1527 | 1527 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #17 | 1469 | 1487 | 1418 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Magdeburg 48.3% · draw 27.0% | L ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Holstein Kiel | L Magdeburg 28.4% · draw 29.2% | W ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Hertha | W Magdeburg 36.8% · draw 29.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Nurnberg | L Magdeburg 32.0% · draw 30.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | W Magdeburg 39.8% · draw 29.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Paderborn | L Magdeburg 23.3% · draw 25.4% | L ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Bochum | W Magdeburg 36.6% · draw 30.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Preußen Münster | W Magdeburg 38.6% · draw 28.1% | W ✓ |
| Mar 13, 2026 | vs Darmstadt | L Magdeburg 30.6% · draw 27.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 06, 2026 | at Elversberg | L Magdeburg 19.4% · draw 21.9% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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