2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Hannover vs Bochum Prediction - 20 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hannover

Home Team
41%
VS

Bochum

Away Team
28%
Draw: 30%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 28.8
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Hannover

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Hannover
Defense +2.1 Bochum
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.7 Bochum
Attack +1.3 Hannover
Results & dominance +1.0 Hannover

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Hannover. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Hannover defense +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Bochum defense +1.1 Over
Hannover attack & chance creation +0.9 Over
Form & results +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 5 5 0 0 15 6 9 15
2 Nurnberg 5 4 1 0 15 6 9 13
3 Heidenheim 5 4 0 1 12 10 2 12
4 Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
5 Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
6 Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 5 4 1 8
7 Cottbus 5 2 1 2 13 12 1 7
8 Bochum 5 2 1 2 4 4 0 7
9 St Pauli 5 1 3 1 7 7 0 6
10 Osnabruck 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
11 Greuther Furth 5 1 2 2 8 10 -2 5
12 Karlsruhe 5 1 2 2 6 11 -5 5
13 Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 12 12 0 4
14 Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 8 10 -2 4
15 Hannover 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
16 Darmstadt 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
17 Dresden 5 1 1 3 7 12 -5 4
18 Holstein Kiel 5 0 3 2 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Hannover L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Nurnberg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Darmstadt (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cottbus (Goals: 1 - 3)

Bochum D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Dresden (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Osnabruck (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Braunschweig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hannover

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.50
Clean Sheets 1

Bochum

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.50
Goals conceded (avg, away) 0.50
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Hannover a 41% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 30% and Bochum at 28%. This is a tight call, with Hannover only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 55% of cases.

Match Analysis

Hannover arrive with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDWLL from most recent), scoring 5 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. Bochum arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DWLWL from most recent), scoring 4 and conceding 4 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Hannover sit 15th with 4 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -3, while Bochum are 8th with 7 points and a level goal difference. That puts Bochum 3 points clear of their opponent. Hannover average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last five home games, while Bochum average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Hannover), defense (2.1 points toward Bochum), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.7 points toward Bochum). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hannover
Goals in last 5 matches
Bochum
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 45% and Over 2.5 at 55%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games are less clear-cut: Hannover matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Bochum matches 1.6. Both teams to score comes in at 55%, no goal for at least one side at 45%. In the model's own attribution, Hannover defense pulls toward Over by 2.8 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hannover
Corners in last 5 matches
Bochum
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 9.8 corners in total. The single most likely count is 9. The chance of 9 corners or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 10 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hannover
Shots in last 5 matches
Bochum
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hannover wins by X goals. Negative = Bochum wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hannover vs Bochum with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hannover vs Bochum
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Hannover. The spread model gives 25% to a Hannover win by two goals or more and 40% to any Bochum win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Hannover win (41%), Over 2.5 (55%), Goal (55%). Expected totals: 9.8 corners and 28.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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