2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Heidenheim vs Kaiserslautern Prediction - 9 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Heidenheim

Home Team
47%
VS

Kaiserslautern

Away Team
25%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 29.8
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Heidenheim

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Heidenheim
Results & dominance +2.8 Heidenheim
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.1 Heidenheim
Attack +0.8 Kaiserslautern

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Heidenheim. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Heidenheim defense +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Kaiserslautern defense +2.4 Over
Heidenheim attack & chance creation +2.1 Over
Form & results +1.1 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Heidenheim D W W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Bielefeld (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Dresden (Goals: 5 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 1 - 4)

Kaiserslautern W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Braunschweig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Magdeburg (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Darmstadt (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Heidenheim

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 2

Kaiserslautern

Goals scored (avg, away) 0.67
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.33
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Heidenheim a 47% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Kaiserslautern at 25%. Heidenheim are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 57% and sees both teams scoring in 61% of cases.

Match Analysis

Heidenheim arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWWWL from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 9 with 2 clean sheets. Kaiserslautern arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLWWD from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 4 with 3 clean sheets. In the table Heidenheim sit 3rd with 13 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +2, while Kaiserslautern are 5th with 11 points and a goal difference of +2. That puts Heidenheim 2 points clear of their opponent. Heidenheim average 3.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Kaiserslautern average 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Heidenheim), results & dominance (2.8 points toward Heidenheim), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (1.1 points toward Heidenheim). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Kaiserslautern
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 43% and Over 2.5 at 57%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Heidenheim matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Kaiserslautern matches 2.0. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, no goal for at least one side at 39%. In the model's own attribution, Heidenheim defense pulls toward Over by 2.6 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Kaiserslautern
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Kaiserslautern
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 29.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 29. The chance of 29 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 30 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Heidenheim wins by X goals. Negative = Kaiserslautern wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Heidenheim vs Kaiserslautern with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Heidenheim vs Kaiserslautern
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.5 goals in favour of Heidenheim. The spread model gives 28% to a Heidenheim win by two goals or more and 36% to any Kaiserslautern win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Heidenheim win (47%), Over 2.5 (57%), Goal (61%). Expected totals: 10.5 corners and 29.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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