Kaiserslautern

2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1551 · #7 2. Bundesliga 1W-2D-0L · 5 pts In line Updated Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #5 of 18 49.3 expected pts · currently 5 pts after 3 matches

League title 4.2%
Promotion 10.4%
Automatic promotion 10.4%
Promotion barrage 8.1%
Relegation barrage 2.5%
Relegation 3.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.

Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Kaiserslautern?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Kaiserslautern's results were 1.7% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketKaiserslauternLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 51.7% 47.9%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 48.3% 53.6%
Both teams to score 44.8% 61.3%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2026-27 2. Bundesliga #7 1517 1551 1551
2025-26 2. Bundesliga #8 1482 1575 1503
2024-25 2. Bundesliga #9 1510 1611 1521
2023-24 2. Bundesliga #11 1430 1544 1477
2022-23 2. Bundesliga #15 1506 1632 1431
2017-18 2. Bundesliga #10 1478 1486 1486

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches: model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 17, 2026 at Magdeburg L Kaiserslautern 24.7% · draw 27.0% W ✗
May 08, 2026 vs Bielefeld L Kaiserslautern 33.5% · draw 30.3% W ✗
May 02, 2026 at Dresden L Kaiserslautern 31.4% · draw 30.3% L ✓
Apr 24, 2026 vs Braunschweig W Kaiserslautern 44.5% · draw 28.0% L ✗
Apr 17, 2026 at Holstein Kiel L Kaiserslautern 29.0% · draw 29.7% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 at Hertha L Kaiserslautern 23.4% · draw 25.9% W ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Fortuna Dusseldorf W Kaiserslautern 35.3% · draw 30.6% W ✓
Mar 21, 2026 at Nurnberg L Kaiserslautern 33.1% · draw 30.7% L ✓
Mar 15, 2026 vs Karlsruhe W Kaiserslautern 41.3% · draw 28.0% W ✓
Mar 07, 2026 at Bochum L Kaiserslautern 25.8% · draw 29.3% L ✓

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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