Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #6 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 52 pts · 16W–4D–14L · GD +5
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Kaiserslautern?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Kaiserslautern's results were 1.7% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Kaiserslautern | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #8 | 1482 | 1575 | 1503 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1510 | 1611 | 1521 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1430 | 1544 | 1477 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1506 | 1632 | 1431 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1478 | 1486 | 1486 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Magdeburg | L Kaiserslautern 24.7% · draw 27.0% | W ✗ |
| May 08, 2026 | vs Bielefeld | L Kaiserslautern 33.5% · draw 30.3% | W ✗ |
| May 02, 2026 | at Dresden | L Kaiserslautern 31.4% · draw 30.3% | L ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Braunschweig | W Kaiserslautern 44.5% · draw 28.0% | L ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Holstein Kiel | L Kaiserslautern 29.0% · draw 29.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | at Hertha | L Kaiserslautern 23.4% · draw 25.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | W Kaiserslautern 35.3% · draw 30.6% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Nurnberg | L Kaiserslautern 33.1% · draw 30.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Karlsruhe | W Kaiserslautern 41.3% · draw 28.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | at Bochum | L Kaiserslautern 25.8% · draw 29.3% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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