2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Hertha vs Greuther Furth Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hertha

Home Team
53%
VS

Greuther Furth

Away Team
23%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 28.8
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Hertha

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Hertha
Results & dominance +4.9 Hertha
Attack +2.6 Hertha
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.5 Hertha

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for Hertha. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Greuther Furth attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
Hertha attack & chance creation +1.5 Over
Greuther Furth defense +0.8 Over
Hertha defense +0.8 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Hertha W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Dresden (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osnabruck (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Magdeburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Braunschweig (Goals: 5 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 4 - 1)

Greuther Furth D D L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Magdeburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Heidenheim (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cottbus (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nurnberg (Goals: 2 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hertha

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 1.00
Clean Sheets 0

Greuther Furth

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Hertha a 53% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 24% and Greuther Furth at 23%. Hertha are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 56% and sees both teams scoring in 61% of cases.

Match Analysis

Hertha arrive with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWWWW from most recent), scoring 16 and conceding 7 with 0 clean sheets. Greuther Furth arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (DDLWL from most recent), scoring 8 and conceding 10 with 0 clean sheets. In the table Hertha sit 1st with 18 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +10, while Greuther Furth are 12th with 6 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Hertha 12 points clear of their opponent. Hertha average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Greuther Furth average 2.0 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Hertha), results & dominance (4.9 points toward Hertha), attack (2.6 points toward Hertha). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hertha
Goals in last 5 matches
Greuther Furth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 44% and Over 2.5 at 56%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Hertha matches produced 4.6 goals on average over their last 5, Greuther Furth matches 3.6. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, no goal for at least one side at 39%. In the model's own attribution, league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points and Greuther Furth attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 2.5 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hertha
Corners in last 5 matches
Greuther Furth
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.5 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 52%, which leaves 48% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hertha
Shots in last 5 matches
Greuther Furth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 28.8 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 49%, which leaves 51% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hertha wins by X goals. Negative = Greuther Furth wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hertha vs Greuther Furth with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hertha vs Greuther Furth
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.6 goals in favour of Hertha. The spread model gives 31% to a Hertha win by two goals or more and 34% to any Greuther Furth win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Hertha win (53%), Over 2.5 (56%), Goal (61%). Expected totals: 10.5 corners and 28.8 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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