Hertha
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #7 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 51 pts · 14W–9D–11L · GD +3
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Hertha?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Hertha's results were 4.6% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Hertha | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 48.3% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1482 | 1603 | 1486 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1491 | 1567 | 1510 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1488 | 1593 | 1522 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | #16 | 1480 | 1480 | 1388 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | #16 | 1480 | 1501 | 1387 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | #14 | 1534 | 1534 | 1439 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #10 | 1502 | 1511 | 1471 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #12 | 1518 | 1570 | 1449 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | #12 | 1520 | 1529 | 1452 |
| 2016-17 | Bundesliga | #15 | 1518 | 1600 | 1427 |
| 2015-16 | Bundesliga | #10 | 1529 | 1604 | 1468 |
| 2014-15 | Bundesliga | #17 | 1498 | 1498 | 1418 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Bielefeld | L Hertha 32.5% · draw 30.8% | L ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | vs Greuther Furth | W Hertha 57.0% · draw 24.9% | W ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Magdeburg | L Hertha 33.6% · draw 29.6% | L ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Holstein Kiel | W Hertha 42.4% · draw 29.6% | L ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Braunschweig | W Hertha 39.6% · draw 29.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Hertha 50.6% · draw 25.9% | L ✗ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Dresden | W Hertha 35.9% · draw 29.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Fortuna Dusseldorf | L Hertha 33.9% · draw 30.7% | W ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Bochum | W Hertha 38.3% · draw 30.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Preußen Münster | W Hertha 36.4% · draw 30.7% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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