2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Karlsruhe vs Nurnberg Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Karlsruhe

Home Team
30%
VS

Nurnberg

Away Team
42%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 71%
No Goal: 29%
Expected Corners: 11.4
Expected Shots: 30.0
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Nurnberg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Karlsruhe
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +7.5 Nurnberg
Defense +6.5 Nurnberg
Results & dominance +3.2 Nurnberg
Attack +3.0 Nurnberg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Nurnberg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Karlsruhe attack & chance creation +4.3 Over
Nurnberg attack & chance creation +3.9 Over
Karlsruhe defense +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Nurnberg defense +2.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 5 5 0 0 15 6 9 15
2 Nurnberg 5 4 1 0 15 6 9 13
3 Heidenheim 5 4 0 1 12 10 2 12
4 Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 10 8 2 9
5 Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 10 7 3 8
6 Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 5 4 1 8
7 Cottbus 5 2 1 2 13 12 1 7
8 Bochum 5 2 1 2 4 4 0 7
9 St Pauli 5 1 3 1 7 7 0 6
10 Osnabruck 5 2 0 3 8 11 -3 6
11 Greuther Furth 5 1 2 2 8 10 -2 5
12 Karlsruhe 5 1 2 2 6 11 -5 5
13 Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 12 12 0 4
14 Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 8 10 -2 4
15 Hannover 5 1 1 3 5 8 -3 4
16 Darmstadt 5 1 1 3 4 8 -4 4
17 Dresden 5 1 1 3 7 12 -5 4
18 Holstein Kiel 5 0 3 2 6 9 -3 3

Recent Trends

Karlsruhe L D L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Cottbus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Hannover (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bielefeld (Goals: 2 - 1)

Nurnberg W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Hannover (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bielefeld (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Dresden (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Karlsruhe

Goals scored (avg, home) 1.33
Goals conceded (avg, home) 3.00
Clean Sheets 1

Nurnberg

Goals scored (avg, away) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 2.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Karlsruhe a 30% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 28% and Nurnberg at 42%. This is a tight call, with Nurnberg only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 62% and sees both teams scoring in 71% of cases.

Match Analysis

Karlsruhe arrive with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (LDLDW from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 11 with 1 clean sheet. Nurnberg arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WDWWW from most recent), scoring 15 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Karlsruhe sit 12th with 5 points from 5 games and a goal difference of -5, while Nurnberg are 2nd with 13 points and a goal difference of +9. That puts Nurnberg 8 points clear of their opponent. Karlsruhe average 1.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Nurnberg average 3.0 scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Karlsruhe), team strength (Elo & Glicko) (7.5 points toward Nurnberg), defense (6.5 points toward Nurnberg). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Karlsruhe
Goals in last 5 matches
Nurnberg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 38% and Over 2.5 at 62%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Karlsruhe matches produced 3.4 goals on average over their last 5, Nurnberg matches 4.2. Both teams to score comes in at 71%, no goal for at least one side at 29%. In the model's own attribution, Karlsruhe attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 4.3 points and Nurnberg attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.9 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Karlsruhe
Corners in last 5 matches
Nurnberg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 11.4 corners in total. The single most likely count is 11. The chance of 11 corners or fewer is 53%, which leaves 47% for 12 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Karlsruhe
Shots in last 5 matches
Nurnberg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 30.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 30. The chance of 30 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 31 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Karlsruhe wins by X goals. Negative = Nurnberg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Karlsruhe vs Nurnberg with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Karlsruhe vs Nurnberg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.4 goals in favour of Nurnberg. The spread model gives 18% to a Karlsruhe win by two goals or more and 51% to any Nurnberg win. A Nurnberg win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Nurnberg win (42%), Over 2.5 (62%), Goal (71%). Expected totals: 11.4 corners and 30.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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