Karlsruhe
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #10 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 44 pts · 12W–8D–14L · GD -11
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Karlsruhe?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Karlsruhe's results were 5.7% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Karlsruhe | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 58.6% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1518 | 1564 | 1460 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1607 | 1645 | 1569 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #4 | 1543 | 1638 | 1624 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #7 | 1440 | 1542 | 1531 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #14 | 1579 | 1598 | 1445 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1466 | 1612 | 1563 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #10 | 1529 | 1544 | 1476 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Bochum | L Karlsruhe 32.2% · draw 29.3% | L ✓ |
| May 08, 2026 | at Paderborn | L Karlsruhe 14.1% · draw 18.7% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Darmstadt | L Karlsruhe 31.9% · draw 26.8% | W ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Hannover | L Karlsruhe 26.6% · draw 27.1% | L ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Elversberg | L Karlsruhe 12.1% · draw 18.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Bielefeld | L Karlsruhe 32.0% · draw 29.2% | W ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Schalke 04 | L Karlsruhe 13.5% · draw 20.7% | L ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Greuther Furth | W Karlsruhe 45.9% · draw 27.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Kaiserslautern | L Karlsruhe 30.7% · draw 28.0% | L ✓ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | vs Dresden | W Karlsruhe 36.7% · draw 29.7% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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