Nurnberg
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 18 61.3 expected pts · currently 17 pts after 7 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 46 pts · 12W-10D-12L · GD +2
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Nurnberg?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nurnberg's results were 3.3% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Nurnberg | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 37.9% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1560 | 1627 | 1622 |
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1482 | 1538 | 1538 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1435 | 1566 | 1501 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1471 | 1559 | 1430 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1482 | 1516 | 1488 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1518 | 1605 | 1495 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1458 | 1528 | 1528 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #16 | 1591 | 1591 | 1444 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1505 | 1291 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1522 | 1622 | 1586 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The 2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/nurnberg">2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/title-odds/bundesliga_2"
width="360" height="430" style="border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/nurnberg">2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>