Nurnberg
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #8 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 46 pts · 12W–10D–12L · GD +2
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Nurnberg?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Nurnberg's results were 3.3% harder to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Nurnberg | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 37.9% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1482 | 1538 | 1538 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1435 | 1566 | 1501 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #15 | 1471 | 1559 | 1430 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #12 | 1482 | 1516 | 1488 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #11 | 1518 | 1605 | 1495 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #9 | 1458 | 1528 | 1528 |
| 2019-20 | 2. Bundesliga | #16 | 1591 | 1591 | 1444 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1505 | 1291 |
| 2017-18 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1522 | 1622 | 1586 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Hannover | L Nurnberg 19.1% · draw 25.6% | D ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Schalke 04 | L Nurnberg 34.1% · draw 31.3% | W ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Greuther Furth | W Nurnberg 39.2% · draw 29.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Magdeburg | W Nurnberg 37.9% · draw 30.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Bielefeld | L Nurnberg 30.0% · draw 30.2% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Dresden | W Nurnberg 38.8% · draw 30.5% | L ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Braunschweig | W Nurnberg 34.9% · draw 31.4% | D ✗ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Kaiserslautern | W Nurnberg 36.3% · draw 30.7% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Holstein Kiel | L Nurnberg 33.4% · draw 30.8% | W ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | W Nurnberg 38.2% · draw 30.7% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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