2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Magdeburg vs Hannover Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Magdeburg

Home Team
49%
VS

Hannover

Away Team
25%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.6
Expected Shots: 30.0
Expected Spread: +0.2

Why the Model Leans Magdeburg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Magdeburg
Defense +6.6 Magdeburg
Attack +3.0 Hannover
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.2 Magdeburg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Magdeburg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Magdeburg defense +2.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Hannover attack & chance creation +1.9 Over
Hannover defense +1.9 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +1.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Magdeburg D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Kaiserslautern (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hertha (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Osnabruck (Goals: 3 - 0)

Hannover W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Bochum (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nurnberg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Darmstadt (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Magdeburg

Goals scored (avg, home) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 2.00
Clean Sheets 3

Hannover

Goals scored (avg, away) 1.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.67
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Magdeburg a 49% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 26% and Hannover at 25%. Magdeburg are the favourite, but the gap to the other outcomes is modest. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 58% and sees both teams scoring in 61% of cases.

Match Analysis

Magdeburg arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (DWLWW from most recent), scoring 10 and conceding 3 with 3 clean sheets. Hannover arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 league games (WLDWL from most recent), scoring 6 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Magdeburg sit 6th with 10 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +2, while Hannover are 10th with 7 points and a goal difference of -2. That puts Magdeburg 3 points clear of their opponent. Magdeburg average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last five home games, while Hannover average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Magdeburg), defense (6.6 points toward Magdeburg), attack (3.0 points toward Hannover). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Magdeburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Hannover
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 42% and Over 2.5 at 58%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Magdeburg matches produced 2.6 goals on average over their last 5, Hannover matches 2.4. Both teams to score comes in at 61%, no goal for at least one side at 39%. In the model's own attribution, Magdeburg defense pulls toward Over by 2.6 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Magdeburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Hannover
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.6 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 51%, which leaves 49% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Magdeburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Hannover
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 30.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 30. The chance of 30 shots or fewer is 55%, which leaves 45% for 31 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Magdeburg wins by X goals. Negative = Hannover wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Magdeburg vs Hannover with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Magdeburg vs Hannover
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.2 goals in favour of Magdeburg. The spread model gives 25% to a Magdeburg win by two goals or more and 40% to any Hannover win. A level scoreline is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Magdeburg win (49%), Over 2.5 (58%), Goal (61%). Expected totals: 10.6 corners and 30.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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