2. Bundesliga 2026-2027: Nurnberg vs Wolfsburg Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nurnberg

Home Team
36%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
33%
Draw: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 10.9
Expected Shots: 29.0
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Nurnberg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +11.1 Nurnberg
Attack +5.3 Wolfsburg
Results & dominance +3.5 Wolfsburg
Defense +3.2 Wolfsburg
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Nurnberg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Nurnberg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Wolfsburg attack & chance creation +3.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.6 Under
Nurnberg attack & chance creation +2.2 Over
Rating-implied goals (Elo & Glicko) +0.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Hertha 6 6 0 0 17 7 10 18
2 Nurnberg 6 5 1 0 16 6 10 16
3 Heidenheim 6 4 1 1 14 12 2 13
4 Wolfsburg 6 3 2 1 15 8 7 11
5 Kaiserslautern 6 3 2 1 6 4 2 11
6 Magdeburg 6 3 1 2 11 9 2 10
7 Cottbus 6 2 2 2 14 13 1 8
8 St Pauli 6 1 4 1 8 8 0 7
9 Bochum 6 2 1 3 5 6 -1 7
10 Hannover 6 2 1 3 7 9 -2 7
11 Osnabruck 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
12 Greuther Furth 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
13 Bielefeld 6 1 2 3 10 12 -2 5
14 Karlsruhe 6 1 2 3 6 12 -6 5
15 Braunschweig 6 1 1 4 12 13 -1 4
16 Holstein Kiel 6 0 4 2 7 10 -3 4
17 Dresden 6 1 1 4 8 14 -6 4
18 Darmstadt 6 1 1 4 5 13 -8 4

Recent Trends

Nurnberg W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hannover (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bielefeld (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Greuther Furth (Goals: 4 - 2)

Wolfsburg W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Darmstadt (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cottbus (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Karlsruhe (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hannover (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nurnberg

Goals scored (avg, home) 3.00
Goals conceded (avg, home) 0.67
Clean Sheets 1

Wolfsburg

Goals scored (avg, away) 2.00
Goals conceded (avg, away) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The model gives Nurnberg a 36% chance of winning at home, with the draw at 31% and Wolfsburg at 33%. This is a tight call, with Nurnberg only narrowly ahead. On goals the model leans Over 2.5 at 55% and sees both teams scoring in 65% of cases.

Match Analysis

Nurnberg arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from their last 5 league games (WWDWW from most recent), scoring 13 and conceding 6 with 1 clean sheet. Wolfsburg arrive with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 league games (WLDWW from most recent), scoring 15 and conceding 8 with 1 clean sheet. In the table Nurnberg sit 2nd with 16 points from 6 games and a goal difference of +10, while Wolfsburg are 4th with 11 points and a goal difference of +7. That puts Nurnberg 5 points clear of their opponent. Nurnberg average 3.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last five home games, while Wolfsburg average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five away games. Looking at what drives the winner call, the model's own attribution points to home advantage (11.1 points toward Nurnberg), attack (5.3 points toward Wolfsburg), results & dominance (3.5 points toward Wolfsburg). These factors are measured in win-probability points and add up to the gap between the two sides if there is a winner.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nurnberg
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model puts Under 2.5 at 45% and Over 2.5 at 55%, so its call is Over 2.5. Recent games point the same way: Nurnberg matches produced 3.8 goals on average over their last 5, Wolfsburg matches 4.6. Both teams to score comes in at 65%, no goal for at least one side at 35%. In the model's own attribution, Wolfsburg attack & chance creation pulls toward Over by 3.9 points and league scoring environment pulls toward Under by 2.6 points.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nurnberg
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 10.9 corners in total. The single most likely count is 10. The chance of 10 corners or fewer is 47%, which leaves 53% for 11 or more corners. The chart shows the full distribution and the over-the-line curve for every count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nurnberg
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Total shots are expected at 29.0 for the two teams combined. The most likely single count is 28. The chance of 28 shots or fewer is 48%, which leaves 52% for 29 or more shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nurnberg wins by X goals. Negative = Wolfsburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nurnberg vs Wolfsburg with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nurnberg vs Wolfsburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal margin is 0.1 goals in favour of Wolfsburg. The spread model gives 21% to a Nurnberg win by two goals or more and 46% to any Wolfsburg win. A Wolfsburg win by 1 is the single most likely margin.

Final Prediction

Final call: Nurnberg win (36%), Over 2.5 (55%), Goal (65%). Expected totals: 10.9 corners and 29.0 shots. Every number on this page comes from Predixsport's published models, with the full probability distributions in the charts and in the downloadable data.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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